By Li Zexu, Vision Times
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wrapped up 2025 with large-scale military drills encircling Taiwan, European scholars say the maneuvers were less about preparing for an invasion and more about projecting psychological pressure. But the empty shows of force may have backfired, they say.
Valérie Niquet, an Asia specialist at the French Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), and Jonathan Sullivan, a scholar at University of Nottingham, each analyzed the CCP’s year-end exercises, identifying key political and strategic messages embedded within the drills.
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to reclaim the self-governing island by any means necessary, including the use of military force. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), has maintained de facto self-rule since 1949, when the ROC government retreated to the island after being defeated on the mainland by communist rebels during the Chinese civil war.
RELATED: Sino-US Relations Enter Phase of Risk Management, With Taiwan a Key Variable
Fear disguised as military readiness
Success
You are now signed up for our newsletter
Success
Check your email to complete sign up
In an opinion piece published on Jan. 5 in “Le Monde,” Niquet wrote that while the drills were large in scale and frequent, they ultimately reflected “strategic uncertainty.” She stated that Beijing has been steadily escalating such actions in an effort to “weaken the will to resist of Taiwan and its partner countries.”
According to Niquet, the CCP’s military exercises are not merely training for a Taiwan invasion, but serve a broader intimidation function, aimed at instilling the belief that the People’s Liberation Army is unstoppable and that any external assistance to Taiwan would only accelerate regional destabilization.
She noted that in recent years, Beijing has normalized large-scale drills around Taiwan and now frames them as a response to “foreign interference.” This narrative, she argued, is designed to preemptively shift blame for any crisis onto the international community, portraying outside actors as the instigators of escalation.
Niquet wrote that the CCP seeks to create a sense of inevitability by intensifying such actions—eroding the resistance of Taiwan and its partners and fostering the belief that coercion is unavoidable, victory is assured, and resistance is futile.
Blockade strategy favored over war
Niquet further explained that a blockade strategy allows Beijing to suffocate Taiwan without launching an outright invasion. By doing so, China can test international reactions without immediately triggering armed conflict, placing Taiwan’s allies, particularly Japan, in difficult political and military dilemmas.
She emphasized that Beijing itself is under growing pressure. Economic problems within China have eroded public trust, making the CCP’s long-promised goal of “national rejuvenation” appear increasingly distant.
Within this context, she argued, coercive scenarios such as maritime encirclement, airspace control, and pressure on ports and trade routes have taken on heightened importance. These tactics favor gradual escalation rather than immediate war.
Maduro’s arrest raises new doubts
Niquet also pointed to the Jan. 3 U.S. operation in Caracas, where American forces captured Venezuelan President and longtime dictator Nicolás Maduro after disabling Chinese-made radar systems through electronic warfare. She said the operation exposed vulnerabilities in CCP military technology, casting doubt on Beijing’s efforts to project an image of overwhelming strength through psychological deterrence. Maduro is being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, alongside his wife Cilia Flores. He has pled not guilty to all charges.
RELATED: US Military Escorts Maduro to NY Trial as Drug Trafficking Charges Come Into Focus
In a separate interview with France Télévisions, Niquet commented on an AI-generated video released by the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command. The footage showcased land, sea, and air drones, as well as armed humanoid robots.
She said the CCP was attempting to display its advanced capabilities in artificial intelligence, drones, and robotics, but noted the video’s science-fiction aesthetic raised questions about whether it reflected real operational capacity or merely a staged performance.
No new capabilities on display
Speaking to France 24, Sullivan said the drills involved coordinated operations across land, sea, air, and rocket forces, but added that “the Chinese military did not demonstrate anything it has not shown before.”
According to reporting by Central News Agency, Simona Grano, director of the Taiwan Studies Program at the University of Zurich, said remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and recent U.S. arms sales to Taiwan represent “increasingly visible foreign intervention,” undermining Beijing’s long-standing claim that Taiwan is purely an internal matter.
Grano noted that the Chinese military also needs to reassure its domestic audience. Former Eastern Theater Command chief Lin Xiangyang was expelled from the CCP and the military over corruption allegations, while political commissar Liu Qingsong has disappeared from public view.
Against this backdrop, the latest drills marked the first major test for newly appointed Eastern Theater commander Yang Zhibin. Large-scale exercises, Grano said, allow Beijing to project an image of a strong command structure and signal that scandals are “in the past.”
Sullivan added that the CCP’s internal military purges have fueled Western speculation about Xi Jinping’s control over the armed forces. Holding high-profile drills at this moment, he said, is intended to dispel those doubts and “reassert authority.”
