Editor’s Note: This article reproduces an open letter circulating in Chinese-language media. Several claims, especially those involving internal Chinese Communist Party and military personnel investigations, cannot be independently verified. Where the letter cites statistics, historical events, or media reporting, those references are presented as the author’s assertions.
Dear Chairman Xi,
I am an ordinary citizen of Taiwan. I hold no office and command no influence. I am not seeking to challenge your authority. In principle, there should be no reason for hostility between us.
Yet the military power under your command is real, and it is pointed in our direction. That is why I cannot remain silent. I want to ask you directly: if you order an attack on Taiwan in the name of “unification,” what lasting good would it bring to your Party, or to the people of the People’s Republic of China?
A lesson from Qin
The Qin state unified China in 221 B.C. after centuries of expansion. Fifteen years later, it was gone.
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After Qin Shi Huang died, the court turned on itself. Conspiracies, forced suicides, and executions followed in rapid succession. Li Si was executed. Hu Hai was compelled to take his own life. Zhao Gao was killed. Members of the imperial clan were eliminated. Within only a few years, the empire had unraveled.
The empire had achieved unification through force. It did not survive the consequences of that force.
The CCP’s own experience
The Chinese Civil War cost millions of lives. When the People’s Republic was established in 1949, its founding leadership might have expected stability. Instead, many of them later fell victim to political campaigns.
Liu Shaoqi, once head of state, died after harsh persecution. Before that, during the “Four Cleanups” campaign, millions were investigated and tens of thousands died from abuse or suicide.
Lin Biao, once named as Mao’s successor in the Party Constitution, died in a plane crash after a failed power struggle.
From 1949 to 1976, Mao Zedong launched more than 50 political movements. Scholars such as Rudolph Rummel, Jung Chang, and Jon Halliday estimate that roughly 70 million people died from non-natural causes during those decades. By the time Mao died, China’s per capita income was around 165 U.S. dollars, near the bottom of global rankings.
Political control was maintained. But the human and economic cost was immense.
Why force leaves scars
When a state seeks unification by military means, it must mobilize people for violence. That requires more than weapons. It requires narratives that justify destruction.
The Qin state rewarded soldiers for the number of enemy heads they took. During revolutionary campaigns, the CCP mobilized class struggle and encouraged extreme forms of violence. Mao himself said revolution was not a dinner party and praised those willing to act without restraint.
Such methods can defeat opponents. They also shape institutions. When law is subordinated to political struggle, and brutality becomes acceptable in the name of higher goals, those habits do not disappear once victory is declared.
Corruption and power
According to official disciplinary data, more than 7 million Party members were disciplined for corruption between 2013 and 2025. In 2025 alone, over one million cases were filed.
Cases involving billions of RMB have surfaced at provincial and ministerial levels. When Zhou Yongkang was sentenced, Reuters reported that assets worth up to 90 billion RMB (approximately 12.5 billion USD) were confiscated from his network.
Numbers on this scale suggest something deeper than individual moral failure. When power operates without meaningful constraint, abuse becomes easier to rationalize. If authority is understood to come from force rather than consent, officials may come to see themselves as owners of the state rather than its servants.
Eradicating corruption requires more than punishing individuals. It requires rules that bind those who wield power.
On Taiwan’s status
Your Party often states that “Taiwan has been China’s territory since ancient times.” Taiwan’s indigenous peoples have lived on the island for thousands of years. The People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949.
In 1936, Mao Zedong told American journalist Edgar Snow that if Taiwan sought independence from Japanese imperialism, it should be supported. At that time, Taiwan was not described as inseparable territory. Historical positions have changed over time.
The 1943 Cairo Declaration referred to Taiwan’s postwar return to the Republic of China. UN Resolution 2758 addressed representation in the United Nations. It did not determine Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Since World War II, the principle that governments derive authority from the will of the people has become widely accepted. The number of sovereign states has expanded dramatically, many through processes of self-determination.
Taiwan’s government is chosen through direct elections. From the standpoint of democratic practice, it governs with electoral legitimacy. A military assault on such a system would not be viewed internationally as a mere internal adjustment.
Your government signed the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in 1998 but has not ratified it. That covenant affirms that political authority rests on the will of the people.
If that principle is acknowledged, unification by force sits uneasily with it.
Hong Kong and consistency
The 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration promised that Hong Kong’s system would remain unchanged for 50 years after 1997. In 2017, China’s Foreign Ministry described the declaration as a historical document without binding force.
At the same time, Beijing continues to invoke World War II–era documents in support of territorial claims. To outside observers, the different treatment of historical texts raises questions about consistency.
Economic risks
China’s economic expansion accelerated after reform and opening, supported by foreign investment and access to global markets.
Today, the property sector faces strain, local government debt is heavy, and capital has become more cautious. A conflict over Taiwan would likely trigger sanctions and financial isolation. The economic consequences could be severe and long-lasting.
Military uncertainty
Reports indicate that numerous senior officers have been investigated or removed in recent years. If the upper ranks of the armed forces are unsettled, the risks of miscalculation increase.
A war over Taiwan would not occur in isolation. It could draw in other major powers. Once begun, events might not be easily controlled.
A choice ahead
Leninist party systems concentrate authority within a single organization. Similar systems in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe ultimately collapsed under their own weight.
If one-party rule is preserved through external conflict, the strain on the state may intensify. If political reform is pursued and authority is grounded more explicitly in public consent, a different path remains possible.
Chairman Xi, this is not a matter of rhetoric but of direction. A decision to use force against Taiwan would shape China’s future for generations. So would a decision to reform.
I write as a citizen who hopes to see peace preserved. I urge you to step back from the brink. History remembers not only those who seize power, but those who choose restraint.
I wish you good health in the coming year.
The views expressed are solely those of the author.
By Cao Xingcheng
