By Li Jingyao, Janet Huang, Vision Times
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares for its Fourth Plenary Session slated for October, speculation is mounting that current leader Xi Jinping could lose his position as Party General Secretary. A recent online poll by China scholar Wu Zuolai revealed that while most respondents expect Xi to remain in power, many say they actually prefer that outcome because they think Xi remaining at the helm would hasten the CCP’s collapse.
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Poll: Majority expect Xi to stay in power
On Oct. 2, Wu Zuolai conducted a small survey on X (formerly Twitter), asking participants to predict Xi Jinping’s future. The three choices:
- Xi steps down at the Fourth Plenary Session,
- Xi retires at the 21st Party Congress, or
- Xi seeks re-election.
By Oct. 6, 1,854 people had voted. 62.5 percent believed Xi would continue beyond the 21st Congress, 24.3 percent thought he would step down this month, and 13.2 percent expected him to leave office. Comments flooded in, with many netizens joking that Xi would live forever, or achieve immortality thanks to China’s sinister organ harvesting practices:
- “He will definitely be re-elected; the organ transplant has always been ready at Zhongnanhai overseas.”
- “No one wants to take over his mess; he’s the one history will blame.”
- “He must serve until he dies.”
- “Re-elect him, let him accelerate the reversal to the end.”
- “The emperor must remain in power until his last day — accelerate!”
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Wu said the results were “completely unexpected.” He had predicted that Xi might stay in office only temporarily before stepping down at the 21st Congress. “If he doesn’t step down, the consequences could be endless — potentially even more damaging than Mao Zedong’s legacy,” he warned.
Many respondents, Wu added, seemed to favor Xi’s continued rule as a way to bring about the CCP’s downfall. “If we just endure a little longer, we might get an ideal outcome. No one can save the Communist Party,” one commenter wrote.
Analysts on the ‘Chief accelerator’
China affairs expert Wang He said the poll underscores the depth of public resentment toward both Xi and the Party. “People hate him to the core — they want him to step down immediately, to “switch off” at once,” Wang said. “The nickname ‘Chief Accelerator’ fits him perfectly, as many hope he will continue to accelerate the collapse of the CCP.”
Wang added that internal power struggles remain fierce and that the Fourth Plenary Session will be crucial for determining the Party’s political trajectory. “The public’s hope is that the CCP’s infighting becomes so severe that it devours itself,” he said. “That sentiment reflects the growing belief that the regime’s end may be near.”
Taiwan Inspirational Association Executive Director Lai Rongwei told overseas media that the sarcastic tone behind calls for Xi’s re-election reflects anger and hopelessness. “What they are really signaling is this: as long as Xi remains in power, the CCP will be driven to collapse,” Lai said.
Australian journalist Dr. Lin Song offered a similar view: “On one hand, Xi wants to remain emperor forever; on the other, many Chinese believe that his obsession with absolute power will eventually destroy the CCP. People are realizing China’s problem is not just one leader — it’s the system itself.”
Will Xi step down as secretary?
Wu Zuolai also claimed to have obtained a leaked list of personnel changes slated for the Fourth Plenary Session. In his Oct. 7 broadcast on “Slow Mountain Talks,” Wu reported that Xi might lose the title of General Secretary while retaining the state presidency and chairmanship of the Central Military Commission (CMC).
According to the alleged list:
- Ding Xuexiang would become General Secretary and CMC Vice Chairman.
- Chen Jining would be appointed Premier.
- Li Qiang would move to head the National People’s Congress.
- Cai Qi would chair the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).
- Zhang Youxia would join the Politburo Standing Committee while remaining CMC First Vice Chairman.
- Yin Li would serve as First Secretary of the Secretariat and President of the Central Party School.
- Zhang Guoqing would lead the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
- Yuan Jiajun would become Executive Vice Premier.
While the list largely features Xi loyalists, it reportedly points to a power reorganization that could dilute his personal authority. Wu said the list “still reflects Xi’s factional influence,” though other sources claim both Xi and Cai Qi are under pressure to resign due to “age concerns.”
Independent analyst Cai Shenkun confirmed that “a friend close to top leadership” told him Xi and Cai might indeed be forced out. The same source said military command had already shifted to Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli: “Security in Beijing and Zhongnanhai has already been fully taken over by the military.”
Both leaks, though unverified, align on one point — that Xi could step down from the General Secretary post during the Fourth Plenary Session.
Xi expected to finish term, but not rule for life
Other observers believe Xi is likely to complete his current term.
Hong Kong writer Yan Chungou noted on Facebook that Chinese state media’s muted praise of Xi before this year’s Beidaihe meetings revealed deep internal disagreement over the Party’s direction. After the meetings, however, coverage of Xi resumed, and he re-emerged at high-profile events — from Tibet and Xinjiang tours to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the September 3 military parade.
According to Yan, that resurgence shows the Party has aligned itself with Xi’s policies — particularly his confrontational stance toward the United States and tightened domestic controls — boosting his short-term standing.
Yan argues Xi is unlikely to step down this month for three reasons:
- It would break Party norms for leadership transitions.
- His policies remain largely consistent with the Party’s goals.
- The volatile international and domestic climate makes a leadership change risky.
Still, Yan believes Xi will not rule indefinitely: “His leadership capacity is limited.” He also pointed to subtle state media signals — three consecutive front-page articles featuring the phrase “spring blossoms, autumn fruits” (春华秋实) — as a hint of Hu Chunhua’s rising prominence.
Yan predicts Hu Chunhua will likely enter the Politburo at the Fourth Plenary Session, calling his ascension “a foregone conclusion.”
