On Saturday, Nov. 29, U.S. President Donald Trump said that Venezuela’s airspace and surrounding skies should be considered “completely closed,” though he offered no specifics. As Washington increases pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, observers are increasingly focused on how the Venezuelan military might respond if the U.S. uses force.
On Thursday, Trump stated that the U.S. might “soon” begin land-based strikes against suspected Venezuelan drug traffickers. Current U.S. operations mainly target “narcoterrorists” at sea. Washington accuses Maduro of leading a drug network known as the Cartel de los Soles (“Cartel of the Suns”), which the U.S. formally designated as a foreign terrorist organization this week.
Vast military gap leaves Venezuela at a disadvantage
Reuters reports that multiple sources familiar with Venezuela’s defense capabilities say the country is dramatically outmatched by the U.S., and that its military has been weakened by poor training, low pay, and aging equipment.
Since taking power in 2013, Maduro has maintained loyalty by appointing senior military officials to high government positions. However, ordinary soldiers receive extremely limited compensation — roughly the equivalent of only about USD $100 per month, or about one-fifth of what an average family needs for basic living expenses, according to estimates.
Some units have already seen desertions, and sources warn the problem could worsen if U.S. military action begins. In recent years, the Venezuelan military’s main experience has consisted of suppressing domestic protests by unarmed civilians, rather than engaging in conventional external warfare.
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Maduro has claimed that eight million civilians are participating in militia training. But one source estimates that in a real conflict, only a few thousand intelligence officers, armed ruling-party supporters, and some militia members would actually take part in defensive operations.
In terms of equipment, Venezuela relies heavily on Russian-made weapons, many of which have been in service for decades and are considered deteriorated. Caracas purchased around twenty Sukhoi fighter jets in the 2000s, but they are widely viewed as inferior to the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 bombers. Most Russian-made helicopters, tanks, and shoulder-fired missiles in Venezuelan service are also older models.
How might Venezuela respond?
Documents reviewed by Reuters and accounts from multiple sources indicate that Venezuela plans to respond to a U.S. airstrike or ground assault along two main lines: first, guerrilla-style “prolonged resistance,” and second, creating chaos to make the country ungovernable.
The concept of prolonged resistance has been referenced publicly by senior officials, though details have never been disclosed. According to planning documents, the strategy relies on more than 280 small military units positioned nationwide, which would conduct sabotage and other guerrilla tactics.
Venezuela has deployed around 5,000 Russian-made Igla portable air-defense missiles — a system Maduro publicly praised on national television in recent days. One source said standing orders instruct combat units to immediately disperse and relocate during an attack to avoid becoming concentrated targets.
The second strategy, described as “de-ordering” the country, has never been publicly acknowledged. Sources say it would rely on intelligence services and armed ruling-party supporters to generate large-scale disorder in Caracas, rendering the state “ungovernable” and raising the cost and difficulty of foreign intervention.
A complex landscape of armed groups
Beyond the conventional military and militia forces, several other armed actors operate within Venezuela.
In the country’s western regions, Colombian guerrilla groups remain active. These areas are also major coca-growing zones — coca being the primary ingredient used to produce cocaine.
Meanwhile, ruling-party supporter groups known as “community organizations” are often seen moving in motorbike formations, confronting protesters during demonstrations. They are sometimes armed and regarded as part of the pro-government paramilitary network.
Venezuelan opposition figures, NGOs, the U.S. government and several Latin American governments have repeatedly accused Maduro and the Venezuelan military of colluding with drug-trafficking organizations involved in violence and criminal activity.
The Venezuelan government has consistently denied these allegations, arguing that Washington is attempting to engineer regime change in order to seize control of the country’s vast oil reserves. Officials describe the accusations as a pretext for foreign interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs.
