An article in Time magazine argues that the war in Iran has distracted the U.S. military and depleted its weapons stockpiles, which at first glance seems unfavorable for Taiwan. However, the U.S. not only demonstrated exceptional operational capability but also diplomatically undermined the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) resolve, potentially strengthening Taiwan’s position.
Time reporter Charlie Campbell wrote, under the headline “How Trump’s War With Iran Could Be Good for Taiwan,” that ongoing conflict between U.S. President Trump and Iran has already reduced the advanced weapon systems necessary to defend Taiwan, raising concerns in Taiwan, Ukraine, and Washington.
Sources revealed that during a closed-door briefing on March 3 with Trump administration officials and members of Congress, questions were raised regarding U.S. weapons reserves.
As the U.S. military is drained and distracted by a conflict on the other side of the globe, some worry that Chinese leader Xi Jinping might see this as an opportune moment to act against democratic Taiwan. Trump’s transactional style, as well as his inconsistent approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlights his belief in “might makes right,” raising concerns that Xi might interpret this as a green light.
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An attack is possible
Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, commented: “Even if the PLA is not fully ready, could Xi attack Taiwan while U.S. precision munitions are potentially depleted? That is possible.”
However, other signs point in the opposite direction: U.S. strikes against Iran may actually reinforce Taiwan’s de facto independence, at least in the short term. Although U.S. explanations for going to war have been ambiguous and contradictory, and the course of the conflict is uncertain, the U.S. military has demonstrated remarkable operational results.
Within four days before the war, U.S. forces struck nearly 2,000 targets, including 16 ships and one submarine, sinking an Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka, approximately 2,000 miles away. After capturing Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. also successfully carried out decapitation strikes against Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his inner circle, showcasing extraordinary intelligence and execution, in stark contrast to the PLA, which has not engaged in large-scale warfare for nearly half a century and previously suffered defeats.
Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University stationed in Taiwan, said: “The decapitation operation proved more real than imagined. Under this shadow, China’s most immediate reaction is likely: ‘That could happen here too.’”
Meanwhile, Chinese military equipment has performed unreliably in Iran. Iran reportedly purchased suicide drones and air defense systems from Beijing, and both sides were negotiating advanced anti-ship missiles, though it is unclear if these were fully deployed.
China’s best chance to save face would be if these weapons remain unused; if already deployed, it would be more embarrassing. Previously, Chinese-supplied advanced radar and air defense systems in Venezuela failed to detect U.S. stealth aircraft, causing a major loss of face for Beijing.
Chong Ja Ian, a professor of international relations at the National University of Singapore, said: “With their own equipment failing in both Venezuela and Iran, China will learn a lesson. I think they are somewhat surprised by the U.S. military’s ability to carry out complex operations.”
Diplomatic implications
The Iran war itself also carries diplomatic implications. On a diplomatic level, it has dampened the CCP’s influence.
Iran’s proxies have long acted against U.S. allies with near impunity, much to Beijing’s quiet satisfaction. Now, the global second-largest economy, which brokered the 2023 restoration of ties between Tehran and Riyadh and claims to be a peacemaker, can only issue vague condemnations and send “peace envoys” to the Middle East, revealing its lack of actual influence.
U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that China “is proving to be an unreliable friend for authoritarian allies.”
Economically, China also feels the pain. China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan and Iranian oil, accounting for 4 percent and 13 percent of its imports, respectively. More broadly, half of China’s oil and nearly one-third of its natural gas come from the Middle East. With Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing regional chaos, Beijing’s energy needs are vulnerable to U.S. action, despite its large reserves.
Moreover, any Chinese plan against Taiwan depends on U.S. non-intervention. While Trump’s foreign policy is unpredictable, the latest U.S. National Defense Strategy explicitly states that America will establish a strong denial defense across the first island chain, which includes Taiwan.
Sean King, senior vice president at consulting firm Park Strategies and an expert on Asian affairs, said: “My sense is Xi believes the U.S. will come to Taiwan’s defense, so he is unlikely to act rashly in the near term.”
