Under the dual pressure of the Middle East situation and economic and trade rivalry, the United States and China are intensifying high-level communication. Preparations for a meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have entered a critical stage. Meanwhile, multiple variables surrounding Iran, energy, and tariffs are making the background of this meeting increasingly complex.
On the eve of the summit
According to a report by Fox News on the 14th, U.S. President Trump will meet with U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue on Tuesday to focus on the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and to prepare for his upcoming visit to China in May and meeting with Xi Jinping.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said that both sides will engage in in-depth discussions on bilateral relations as well as preparations for the Beijing visit. Washington is currently evaluating its overall China strategy, aiming to clarify its policy direction ahead of the summit.
This meeting comes as the United States has taken a hardline stance in the Middle East. The U.S. has imposed a military blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, while China remains one of the largest buyers of Iranian crude oil, inevitably drawing Beijing into regional tensions.
Energy and geopolitical risks compound
CNN noted that, as the world’s largest energy importer, China showed a degree of resilience in the early stage of this Gulf conflict. However, as the U.S.–Iran ceasefire remains unstable and U.S. restrictions on Iran’s exports intensify, the risks facing Beijing continue to rise.
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China’s heavy reliance on Iranian oil places it in a sensitive position amid U.S. policy adjustments. Although China has mitigated some of the impact through diversified imports and strategic reserves (enough to last about three months), rising global oil prices have already begun to pass through to the domestic economy.
Data shows that in March, China’s transportation fuel costs rose by about 10 percent month-on-month, while soaring aviation fuel prices have pushed up airfares. At the same time, producer prices for industrial goods have turned positive for the first time after three years of decline. However, analysts believe that this cost-driven inflation will squeeze profit margins and weaken consumer spending power.
In addition, if the conflict becomes prolonged, a cooling global economy will further impact China’s export-dependent growth model.
Strait of Hormuz: A critical energy corridor under pressure
Financial data shows that about 38 percent of the oil and 23 percent of the liquefied natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz flows to China, making this route vital to China’s energy security.
Although the U.S. blockade may restrict Iran’s exports, China’s supply remains relatively stable in the short term. On one hand, large volumes of crude oil are already stored in tankers at sea or in reserves; on the other hand, China’s refining companies currently have inventory coverage of about 120 days.
However, analysts generally believe that if the blockade continues, inventories decline, and oil prices rise further, China’s refining sector and refined fuel supply will face mounting pressure. The government may have to stabilize the market by seeking alternative supplies or implementing policy interventions.
Economic and security rivalry: US–China relations enter a sensitive window
Beyond geopolitics, trade frictions between the U.S. and China have not eased. Previously, both sides temporarily reduced tariffs of over 100 percent to about 30 percent for the U.S. and 10 percent for China, but core differences remain in areas such as technology, market access, and national security.
The United States has recently tightened its policies further, closing the loophole that allowed Chinese goods valued under $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, directly impacting companies such as Temu (Pinduoduo’s overseas platform) and Shein.
At the same time, U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that China is unlikely to take military action against Taiwan in the short term, indicating that Washington’s security approach remains focused on deterrence rather than preparation for direct conflict.
On the diplomatic front, Chinese President Xi Jinping recently met with UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed in Beijing and proposed a “four-point initiative” for peace in the Middle East, emphasizing the promotion of a ceasefire and reforms to security mechanisms. This signals that Beijing is attempting to play a more active mediating role in the conflict.
However, the United States continues to closely monitor interactions between China and Iran. In response to reports that China may be supplying weapons to Iran, Beijing has denied the claims, while Trump has warned that if the reports prove true, the U.S. will impose an additional 50 percent tariff on Chinese goods.
Analysts point out that Beijing currently faces a delicate balancing act: it does not want the United States to shift its strategic focus entirely to the Middle East, nor does it want the conflict to disrupt the relatively stable U.S.–China relationship—especially ahead of Trump’s planned visit to China.
As both economic and diplomatic pressures rise, whether China will increase pressure on Iran and push forward negotiations has become a key variable closely watched by the outside world.
