Reports from the U.S. military and rumors circulating on Chinese WeChat appeared almost at the same time. Although the sources are different, when combined, they provide a more comprehensive picture of the CCP’s military capabilities.
Veteran national security journalist Bill Gertz wrote in The Washington Times on April 16 that a recent report from the U.S. Space Force predicts the possibility of future conflict with China. The report is titled “Future Operational Environment 2040.”
The U.S. Space Force notes that the CCP is accelerating the development of space warfare capabilities.
It is expected that by 2040, the CCP will conduct low-intensity warfare supported by advanced technologies, with the goal of weakening the United States.The report outlines a relatively severe future scenario over the next 14 years, stating:
“By 2040, the operational environment will be characterized by continuous yet hard-to-detect competition, taking place below the level of declared war. Due to sustained electromagnetic activity, cyber operations, and covert interference in orbit, the line between peace and conflict has become blurred.”
Success
You are now signed up for our newsletter
Success
Check your email to complete sign up
The report compares this coming period to the years leading up to the outbreak of World War I in 1914. It predicts that by then, there will likely be no large-scale war between China (the CCP) and Russia and the United States, but a prolonged form of conflict will unfold in space and other domains.
The year 2040 is a key milestone publicly set by the CCP, aiming to achieve parity with the United States in space power. The CCP considers space capabilities crucial for joint military strikes, blockade operations, border warfare, and air defense systems.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is developing advanced military technologies and dual-use civilian-military capabilities, including the deployment of directed-energy weapons, artificial intelligence–driven weapons, brain–computer interface capabilities, and “metamaterials”—engineered structures designed to control light, sound, and electromagnetic waves in ways not found in nature.
The U.S. Space Force predicts that future space warfare will be defined as “full-spectrum unrestricted warfare,” extending beyond the physical domain into digital and cognitive warfare.
The report states that similar to Germany’s “unrestricted submarine warfare” during World War I and comparable actions taken by the United States against Japan in World War II, future “borderless warfare” in space and the electromagnetic domain will pose a major threat to the United States.
“Just like submarine warfare in the past, we predict that by 2040, (full-spectrum unrestricted warfare) will mean that every frequency, signal, and orbital region will become a contested space, and both military and civilian space infrastructure will be targeted.”
Centenary of CCP’s rule
The report states that the CCP leadership views the mid-21st century as a historic window of opportunity, linked to the centenary of the Communist Party’s rule. The CCP aims to become a technological superpower in the early 2030s and achieve “full-spectrum dominance or parity” by 2049.
Chinese military planners are building a space warfare force system that includes both operational systems and deterrence systems.
“This will be manifested through threats and displays of force, followed by cautious escalation in the precise use of military power, all supported by a powerful space force capable of ‘shock deterrence strikes.’”
CCP space warfare capabilities are expected to include a range of existing counter-space weapons: anti-satellite missiles, directed-energy weapons, and “killer robot satellites.”
The report states that CCP combat capabilities will rely on advanced intelligence, sensing, and communications systems deployed in space, combined with high-speed decision-making tools and maneuverable satellites. By 2040, the CCP’s advanced space technology threats are expected to include “unprecedented” asymmetric warfare capabilities.
These capabilities will rely on advances in artificial intelligence, brain–computer interfaces, and materials science, including “metamaterials.” The Chinese military will use these technologies to create “invisibility cloaks” for satellites.
CCP is building a ‘Super Brain’
The report also reveals that the CCP is building a massive artificial intelligence–based platform, referred to as a “super brain,” which is used to track and attract millions of scientists and researchers worldwide.
In terms of brain–computer interface military capabilities, the PLA is heavily investing in related technologies to achieve direct neural links between combat personnel and space robotic systems.
“This could significantly compress the decision-making cycle from minutes to milliseconds, while allowing a single operator to manage vast satellite constellations, weapons platforms, and sensor networks.”
The report also states that the PLA plans to combine brain–computer interfaces with artificial intelligence to carry out complex multi-domain operations as part of its “full-spectrum unrestricted warfare,” and that “its rate of adaptation may surpass the current U.S. military decision cycle.”
According to the report, by 2040, directed-energy weapons will be significantly enhanced through AI-assisted targeting, miniaturized launch systems, and algorithmic modulation technologies. Other advanced technologies under development include quantum radar, which would use single photons instead of traditional electromagnetic waves to enhance electronic warfare capabilities and detect satellite targets.
The report notes that spacecraft capable of deploying swarms of micro-satellites and nuclear-powered space propulsion technologies will also strengthen the CCP’s space warfare capabilities. High-altitude balloons, drones, and airships operating at altitudes between 60,000 and 120,000 feet will pose a threat to U.S. space dominance and provide the PLA with “unique strike options.”
The report also states that over the coming decades, Russia’s low-intensity space warfare will rely on maneuverable robotic satellites, mobile jamming systems, and concealed “sleeping satellites” that can be activated at unexpected moments.
The report concludes: “The overall effect will be a long-term competition characterized by incremental cumulative losses rather than decisive battles. Every informational advantage creates a corresponding vulnerability, and defensive adjustments in turn create new attack surfaces.”
Key factor not addressed in the US military report
It should be noted that U.S. military assessments have not factored in one critical variable—one that only those familiar with China can fully appreciate. That variable is Xi Jinping, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party.
It is no exaggeration to say that, so long as Xi Jinping performs in his usual manner, regardless of the size or capability of the PLA’s space forces, rocket forces, navy, or ground forces, their effectiveness could be significantly undermined. Observers argue that internal leadership dynamics have the potential to disrupt even the most advanced military structures.
In recent days, new developments within the Chinese military have again been confirmed, drawing renewed attention to these concerns.
On April 17, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress issued its second announcement of the year, stating that five generals had been removed from their positions as deputies to the National People’s Congress as of February this year. These include former Commander of the PLA Army Li Qiaoming, former Commander of the Navy Shen Jinlong, former Political Commissar Qin Shengxiang, former Air Force Political Commissar Yu Zhongfu, and former Political Commissar of the Information Support Force Li Wei.
In addition, other lieutenant generals and major generals are also involved, including personnel from the “Central Military Commission National Defense Mobilization Department,” the “Central Military Commission Political Work Department,” the “PLA 73rd Group Army,” and the “64th Base of the Rocket Force.”
Of course, the CCP military also has its own way of dealing with Xi Jinping. Despite their constant shouting of political slogans, their so-called “loyalty” is, like their missiles—“filled with water and sand.”
Questions raised over the PLA’s actual combat readiness
On April 19, a report circulating online drew widespread attention. Deng Yuwen, a U.S.-based independent scholar, shared the information on the social media platform X, citing sources found on China’s Wechat.
According to the report, the Chinese military has launched a sweeping internal campaign described as a “large-scale inventory review and retroactive investigation”—one that is reportedly comprehensive, substantive, and supported by auditing and technical inspections, rather than a routine or symbolic exercise.
I. Operation overview
Name:
“Sharp Sword–2025 Special Action on Military Equipment Quality”
(Expected to run from late 2025 through 2026)
Method:
The operation is reportedly conducted under a strict “four no’s and two directs” approach:
- No prior notification
- No advance coordination
- No formal briefings
- No accompanying personnel
- Direct access to warehouses
- Immediate on-site inspections
Scope:
The campaign is said to cover 53 key facilities across the PLA, including:
- Weapons depots
- Ammunition storage sites
- Combat-readiness equipment warehouses
It also extends to active-duty assets across the Air Force, Navy, and Rocket Force, including:
- Aircraft
- Missiles
- Radar systems
- Engines
In addition, the review reportedly traces the entire defense production chain, covering:
- Equipment under production
- Inventory in storage
- Equipment already delivered
A retroactive audit spanning the past 9 to 15 years is said to examine procurement, acceptance, storage, and maintenance records.
II. What the ‘inventory review’ targets
1. Basic Inventory Verification
- Whether quantities match records
- Whether batch numbers and serial numbers are accurate
- Whether outdated equipment has been repackaged or relabeled
- Whether expired materials have been re-dated
2. Technical Performance Testing (reported as the most rigorous aspect)
- Missiles / Ammunition:
- Disassembly inspections
- X-ray scanning
- Propellant weight verification
- Fuse testing
- Radar / Electronic Systems:
- Power output testing
- Detection range verification
- Anti-interference capability testing
- TR module inspection
- Aircraft / Engines:
- Inspection of critical components
- Strength testing
- Material verification
- Checks for cracks or corrosion
3. Supply Chain Investigation (focused on uncovering irregularities)
- Review of contracts, invoices, inspection reports, and approval records
- Examination of supplier qualifications and material sources
- Identification of substandard substitutions or civilian-grade materials used in place of military-grade components
- Investigation into potential shell companies, related-party transactions, or conflicts of interest in procurement and evaluation processes
III. Reported issues identified
According to circulating reports, some problems already identified have been described as serious:
Ammunition-Related Issues:
- Corrosion in fuses of certain missile and artillery batches
- Insufficient or contaminated propellant
- Repackaging of expired munitions
- Grenades reportedly filled with sand or other materials to meet weight requirements
- Malfunctions during exercises, including misfires, premature detonation, or reduced explosive effectiveness
Radar and Electronic Systems:
- Alleged component downgrades and substitution of lower-grade chips in systems such as KLJ-7A and KJ-500 radar
- Reduced performance in high-temperature or complex electromagnetic environments
- Reports of system instability or exaggerated technical specifications
- Radio and avionics systems with significantly reduced reliability metrics
Aircraft and Engine Components:
- Use of non-compliant or substandard bolts and bearings in aircraft
- Engine lifespan reportedly overstated, with higher failure rates
- Issues such as loose parts and oil leakage
IV. Why conduct a large-scale inventory review now?
According to circulating reports, several factors are driving this campaign:
1. Anti-Corruption Pressure
The recent investigations of senior defense industry executives—including Tan Ruisong, He Wenzhong, and Wu Manqing—have reportedly exposed widespread issues of systemic quality falsification across the military-industrial chain.
2. Operational Readiness Requirements
Sources suggest that in the context of potential military conflict, critical systems must function reliably. Failures such as malfunctioning missiles, ineffective radar, or unreliable aircraft performance are viewed as unacceptable risks.
3. Addressing Historical Backlogs
The review is also described as an effort to confront long-standing issues accumulated over decades of relative peacetime conditions, including lenient inspection standards, procedural shortcuts, and corruption-related distortions. The current campaign is reportedly intended to identify and eliminate these deficiencies in a comprehensive manner.
V. Summary
Taken together, the developments have been described as a system-wide “cleanup” across the PLA and its defense industry.
The process reportedly involves:
- Re-examining historical records
- Disassembling and testing equipment
- Verifying technical performance
- Investigating potential corruption
The stated objective, according to these accounts, is to identify and remove all substandard components, irregularities, and hidden deficiencies across the system.
Assessing China’s capabilities
In assessing the capabilities of the Chinese military, U.S. analysts typically rely on professional military criteria, evaluating the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) as a modern, structured fighting force.
However, observers note that both the Chinese Communist Party leadership and the military system operate under dynamics that differ from conventional models. In light of recent performance issues involving Chinese military equipment, some of the information circulating online—particularly claims of quality irregularities—has been viewed by analysts as carrying a degree of plausibility.
Reports suggesting the presence of widespread deficiencies—sometimes described as “inflation” or “falsification” of quality within the system—have raised questions about overall reliability. At the same time, Xi Jinping’s leadership style and decision-making approach are often cited as a significant variable within the military command structure.
Taken together, these factors suggest that external assessments of the PLA may face uncertainty not only at the technical level, but also at the leadership level. While the force may appear formidable in scale and ambition, some analysts caution that its actual performance under high-intensity conditions remains an open question.
By Jian Yi
