By Meng Hao, Vision Times
On May 13-15, U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing for high-level talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as analysts zero in over the future of Taiwan and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. The summit also touched upon issues including the AI race, trade, and the ongoing Iran conflict.
Though the White House summary of the Trump-Xi meeting made no direct mention of Taiwan, the Trump administration quickly signaled through multiple channels that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged. Washington reiterated its opposition to any unilateral attempt to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and reaffirmed support for Taiwan’s defense modernization.
During the visit, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Washington’s stance on Taiwan remains “unchanged” and warned that any attempt by Beijing to change the Taiwan Strait status quo through force or other coercive means would trigger an international response.
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Taiwan remains central issue
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Rubio also alleged that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly pursuing “peaceful unification” through political infiltration, influence operations, and referendum-style tactics designed to manufacture the appearance of voluntary reunification.
Speaking aboard Air Force One on the return flight to Washington, Trump said Xi spent considerable time discussing Taiwan, but stressed that he “just listened” and “made no commitments.” Trump added that discussions regarding a proposed $14 billion arms package for Taiwan would continue with “the people governing Taiwan.”
Taiwanese analysts say Trump’s often unconventional communication style has fueled conflicting interpretations, but argue that the broader policy direction remains consistent with longstanding U.S. strategy: Maintaining the status quo while deterring military escalation.
Kuo Yuren, vice president of Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research, said Trump’s remarks should not be interpreted as a major policy shift. “Trump is not a traditional diplomat,” Kuo said, arguing that the president’s off-the-cuff language is often misunderstood when removed from context.
Bipartisan policy
Analysts noted that Trump’s comments opposing Taiwan “moving toward independence” align closely with decades of bipartisan U.S. policy, which traditionally avoids endorsing formal Taiwanese independence while simultaneously supporting Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities.
Rubio reinforced that position during a separate NBC interview conducted while he skipped a summit banquet in Beijing. He reiterated that Washington’s red line remains clear: Opposition to any non-peaceful attempt to alter the existing balance across the Taiwan Strait. He added that Beijing would be making a “terrible mistake” if it tried to take Taiwan by force.
At the same time, Taiwan’s domestic political gridlock has emerged as a growing concern for both Washington and regional allies. Though Taiwan operates as a sovereign nation, Beijing views it as a “breakaway province,” and has vowed to reclaim the self-ruling island by any means necessary.
Trump has been viewed as one of the most supportive U.S. presidents regarding arms sales to Taiwan. During his first term, approved military sales reportedly totaled approximately $18.3 billion, surpassing the combined total under President George W. Bush. Analysts estimate that additional packages under Trump’s current term could push total approved sales beyond $30 billion.
The proposed sales include key asymmetric warfare systems such as HIMARS rocket launchers, Paladin self-propelled artillery, Stinger missiles, and Patriot PAC-3 defense systems.
Taiwan’s stalled defense budget
However, Taiwan’s legislature remains deadlocked over a special defense budget proposal worth roughly NT$780 billion. Earlier versions of the package were significantly reduced, particularly affecting domestic drone and asymmetric warfare programs.
Additional provisions requiring the U.S. to provide finalized pricing documentation before procurement approval have reportedly frustrated American officials, who view the demands as inconsistent with standard Foreign Military Sales procedures.
According to Taiwanese analysts, U.S. officials and representatives from the American Institute in Taiwan privately urged Taipei to pass the full package before the Trump-Xi summit to avoid diplomatic complications. Instead, the revised budget passed in a reduced form, raising concerns that future arms announcements could now be delayed until after Xi’s anticipated September visit.
Kuo warned that the delays could undermine not only Taiwan’s defense readiness, but also broader U.S.-Japan Indo-Pacific coordination. Following the summit, Trump quickly held a phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, with both sides reaffirming the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Indo-Pacific on high alert
Japan has simultaneously accelerated efforts to expand its strategic role in the Indo-Pacific. Takaichi’s government is reportedly preparing constitutional reform proposals that could broaden emergency powers and facilitate deeper regional security coordination.
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Analysts say Tokyo and Washington are increasingly dividing responsibilities across the Indo-Pacific, with Trump focused on trade negotiations and geopolitical bargaining while Japan strengthens regional alliance networks and defense cooperation.
Meanwhile, Beijing continues to face mounting economic pressure at home, including deflation concerns, a prolonged real estate crisis, and slowing growth. Analysts argue these domestic challenges are pushing the CCP to seek stability abroad while intensifying political and cognitive warfare tactics toward Taiwan.
Rubio warned that Beijing increasingly favors “perfect world” scenarios involving infiltration, financial influence, propaganda campaigns, and political manipulation aimed at creating the illusion of peaceful unification without direct military conflict. Taiwanese experts argue that such “gray zone” strategies may ultimately pose a greater long-term threat than outright military invasion.
As the geopolitical contest among the United States, China, Taiwan, and Japan enters a new phase, analysts say Taiwan faces mounting pressure to accelerate defense reforms, deepen coordination with Indo-Pacific allies, and strengthen domestic political unity.
