The death of outspoken Chinese economist Gao Shanwen at the age of 55 has prompted widespread mourning within China’s financial community while renewing scrutiny of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) tightening control over independent economic analysis, particularly under the leadership of Xi Jinping. New reporting and personal accounts have shed fresh light on the pressures faced by economists whose assessments diverge from Beijing’s official narrative.
Gao, who served as chief economist at SDIC Securities, died on July 7 after battling T-cell lymphoma. Long respected for his keen market analysis, he became the focus of political controversy after publicly questioning China’s official economic growth figures.
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WSJ highlights Gao’s public stand
In a July 15 article, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) examined Gao’s career and final years, recounting how the prominent economist was effectively silenced after publicly questioning official figures.
The report pointed to remarks Gao made during a December 2024 forum hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “There is no way to know the true pace of China’s economic growth,” Gao said. “My personal estimate is that actual GDP growth over the past two or three years has averaged around 2 percent, even though the official figure has been close to 5 percent.”
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The comments directly contradicted Beijing’s official growth statistics and quickly drew attention. According to the WSJ, Gao’s social media accounts were subsequently suspended, and he later left SDIC Securities amid mounting political pressure.
The publication also reported that senior Chinese officials launched an investigation following his remarks and that Gao was later barred from public speaking, with a scheduled university lecture canceled.
Longtime critic of the CCP’s economic model
The WSJ also revisited an interview reporter Lingling Wei conducted with Gao in 2019, when observers questioned why Chinese leader Xi Jinping had not followed through on earlier promises to give markets a “decisive role” in China’s economy. Gao’s response has since become one of his most frequently cited observations. “State-owned enterprises are the Communist Party’s two legs,” he said. “No one cuts off their own legs.”
According to Wei, Gao consistently argued that China’s state sector remained central to the Party’s political and economic system despite repeated pledges of market reform. Throughout a career spanning China’s central bank, Everbright Securities, and SDIC Securities, he earned a reputation for independent analysis that often challenged official narratives.
Additional insight into the pressures facing Chinese economists emerged after Gao’s death through a memorial essay penned by economist Lin Caiyi, vice president of the China Chief Economists Forum Institute. The essay, titled “Silent Grief: Lin Caiyi’s Tribute to Gao Shanwen,” circulated widely online before being removed from Chinese websites. In it, Lin recalled a closed-door meeting in Beijing during the winter of 2018.
A thorn on Beijing’s side
According to the essay, an unidentified government official sharply reprimanded several chief economists before singling out Gao by name. “The leadership has already been very tolerant of you. We have been instructed to strengthen guidance over your public remarks.”
Lin wrote that from that point forward, economists’ public comments and market views increasingly became subject to official “guidance.” Recalling the atmosphere, she wrote, “It was called a symposium of chief economists, but only one person was talking. Everyone else remained silent.”
After the meeting, Lin said she joked to Gao, “Professor Gao, you’ve gotten yourself into trouble, and dragged the rest of us down with you. When are you going to buy us drinks to compensate us for the loss of our freedom of speech?” Gao responded only by sighing and shaking his head, she said.
Reflecting on the response to Gao’s death, Lin concluded, “So much grief is flowing through China’s financial community today. Rather than mourning only Gao Shanwen’s passing, many are mourning the end of an era when people could freely express their views.”
Official pushback
The outpouring of public grief has also drawn criticism from pro-Beijing commentators, underscoring the sensitivity surrounding Gao’s legacy and broader debate over China’s economic trajectory.
According to Hong Kong’s Ming Pao, former Xinhua journalist Ming Jinwei warned against what he described as attempts to “elevate” Gao’s reputation, accusing some commentators of using his legacy to promote neoliberal ideas and encourage challenges to government authority. Xinhua is known as China’s official state news agency and serves as one of the CCP’s principal channels for disseminating official policy and messaging.
Gao’s candid observations on China’s economy had frequently attracted public attention long before his death. During a 2024 investment strategy conference, he remarked that post-pandemic China could be summarized as having “energetic elderly people, lifeless young people, and middle-aged people who have lost hope,” a bleak assessment that spread widely across Chinese social media before later being censored.
