A powerful wave of influenza is sweeping across mainland China, overwhelming hospitals. Chinese authorities have issued an emergency alert, warning that most people lack immunity against the dominant H3N2 influenza strain.
According to data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), the latest week’s outbreak of “influenza-like illness (ILI)” cases is 87 times higher than in the first week of last month.
In its latest weekly influenza surveillance report released on Nov. 2, the China CDC stated that between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2, flu activity rose in southern provinces and in most northern provinces. A total of 347 influenza-like illness outbreaks were reported nationwide, including 245 cases of influenza A (H3N2) and 3 cases of A (H1N1)pdm09.
The report noted that southern provinces collected 973 outbreak samples, of which 946 were A(H3N2). Northern provinces collected 656 outbreak samples, all A(H3N2)**.
From the CDC data:
- Oct 27–Nov 2: 347 outbreaks
- Oct 20–26: 144 outbreaks
- Oct 13–19: 49 outbreaks
- Oct 6–12: only 4 outbreaks
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This means the latest week’s total of 347 outbreaks is 2.4 times higher than last week and 87 times higher than the first week of October, showing how quickly the flu is spreading across the mainland — and that’s only according to official data, which many suspect understates the true scale of the epidemic.
The CDC defines an “influenza-like illness outbreak” as 10 or more cases in the same area or organization within one week, verified by the local disease control agency and reported through the “China Influenza Surveillance Information System.”
Last week’s report mentioned rising flu activity in “some northern provinces.” This week’s, however, notes that “most northern provinces” are now seeing increases, while southern provinces have continued to experience “rising flu activity” for several weeks — indicating that the epidemic in northern China has rapidly worsened.
Children’s cases soar
On Nov. 7, Shenyang News reported on its Douyin (TikTok China) channel that flu activity nationwide has risen significantly, with frequent cluster outbreaks in schools, and children aged 5–14 showing the highest positivity rates.
A deputy director at the Pediatric Hospital of the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine said that since late October, outpatient visits have surged sharply, especially among fever patients. “In just the two days over last weekend, outpatient visits exceeded 4,000,” she said. Among these fever cases, influenza A accounts for about 40 percent.
She added that compared with previous years, this year’s influenza A activity started earlier and is characterized by being “strong, sudden in onset, and prone to recurrence.”
Currently, acute respiratory infectious diseases are prevalent in many parts of China.
On Nov. 4, the Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control announced that flu season has arrived, with H3N2 as the dominant strain, urging residents to stay alert. The Shanghai CDC also reported a slight uptick in positive influenza test rates.
Research has shown that a single sneeze from a flu patient can travel up to 8 meters and contain about 260,000 flu virus particles.
According to the National Influenza Center, from January to June 2025, the dominant flu strain in China was A(H1N1). Since July, however, A(H3N2) has become the main circulating strain.
Tianjin issues flu weather risk forecast
Given the worsening situation, Tianjin has introduced the country’s first “Children’s Influenza Meteorological Risk Forecast.”
According to China News Service, Tianjin’s Environmental Meteorological Center and Tianjin Children’s Hospital jointly released the forecast on Nov. 7. It predicted that from Nov. 7–9, temperatures in Tianjin would drop by 4–6°C, increasing the risk of flu transmission among children. The flu risk level was rated Level 4, and is expected to rise to Level 3 after Nov. 13.
The risk scale ranges from Low (Level 5) to High (Level 1), passing through intermediate levels of Medium-Low (4), Medium (3), and Moderately High (2).
Hospitals across China are now overcrowded. Douyin users have posted videos showing:
- Ningbo Women and Children’s Hospital completely full, “no beds available.”
- Shanghai Ruijin Hospital, Wuhan Union Hospital, and Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital packed with patients.
- Hospitals in Xuzhou and Hefei struggling with massive crowds.
- Clinics in Changchun, Jilin “unimaginably busy.”
- Tianjin Children’s Hospital filled with people even “in the middle of the night.”
Reports say a 39-year-old woman in Hangzhou, surnamed Cheng, was diagnosed with influenza but refused hospitalization. After enduring symptoms at home for three days, multiple lobes of her lungs developed “white lung” — a severe complication.
In Hong Kong, there have been serious and fatal flu cases:
- A 2-year-old girl developed severe brain complications from influenza A.
- A 13-year-old girl infected with influenza B on October 12 died of severe illness.
By Li Muzi
