By Jingyao Li
China is entering a volatile season, risking rural unrest. With the economy faltering and the year-end migration rush approaching, scattered local clashes are beginning to flare across the country. In Guangxi, a city government gate was struck by a car amid what appeared to be gunfire. In Guizhou, villagers confronted officials over forced cremation policies—some even declaring they would dig up Xi Jinping’s ancestral tomb in retaliation.
At the same time, Beijing has begun warning against “large-scale return and stay” of migrant workers, a phrase many analysts see as a quiet acknowledgment of what the central government fears most: rural unrest rising from below.
A rare official warning before the return migration wave
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national meeting in Yunnan. Officials discussed employment stability for the recently lifted-out poor population. The guiding phrase—“Two Stabilizations and One Prevention”—called for stabilizing the scale of employment, stabilizing income, and preventing people from slipping back into poverty because of job loss.
But one line stood out: localities were told to “prevent large-scale return and stay” among migrant workers.
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The timing was notable. Millions of migrant workers face shrinking opportunities in the cities as factories downsize, wages are delayed, or jobs disappear entirely. If they return home and remain unemployed for long periods, they may become a source of intense social pressure. The warning, observers say, reflects Beijing’s growing unease.
A violent crash at Beihai city hall
Those concerns appeared to materialize in Guangxi.
On Nov. 24, a blue sedan rammed the gate of the Beihai city government building. Video shows a black armored patrol vehicle slamming into it moments later. Smoke filled the entryway. Sharp pops—possibly gunfire or small explosions—echoed across the scene.
Police and security officers with shields surrounded the car and dragged out a man in a white shirt. Dozens of people filmed the confrontation from the sidewalk.
Authorities moved quickly to suppress the information. Even so, as of Nov. 25, Douyin searches still returned terms such as “Beihai government shooting,” “Beihai gate car attack,” and “Beihai city hall explosion.”
Guizhou villagers clash with authorities over forced cremation
In Guizhou, another confrontation erupted.
Reports from the account “Yesterday (@YesterdayBigcat)” described two consecutive protests in Shidong Town, Xifeng County. Villagers blocked officials, surrounded a deputy county chief, and demanded that the government withdraw a newly imposed mandatory cremation policy.
Neighboring counties had already eased similar mandates after public backlash. But Xifeng County continued to enforce the rule, insisting all residents must be cremated after death. Villagers accused officials of exploiting the policy to raise revenue and argued that it violated long-held burial customs.
There were financial concerns as well. Families said they were forced to pay for cremation and an urn—then still buy a coffin for burial because rural areas lack facilities to store urns.
Tensions escalated when villagers shouted at officials: “If the Communist Party wants to dig up ancestral graves, start with Xi Jinping’s family tomb! Do you dare?”
On Nov. 22, the situation intensified in nearby Mushan Village.
Villagers heard that officials intended to exhume a recently buried body. Hundreds rushed to the cemetery, carrying sticks and surrounding the grave. Loudspeakers repeated demands to end the cremation policy.
Through the night, residents stood watch around the burial site. The officials who had earlier threatened to “enter the village and seize the corpse” did not act—overwhelmed by the sheer number of villagers guarding the grave.
Growing rural unrest exposes deeper anxiety
Political commentator Chen Pokong says Beijing’s concern over the return-migration wave reflects two alarm signals.
First, China’s economy is deteriorating rapidly. Many migrant workers can no longer survive in cities due to layoffs, shutdowns, or unpaid wages. But after decades of urban life, they have also lost the ability to farm. Many left home as teenagers and now return in their fifties or sixties—unable to restart agricultural work.
Second, the CCP fears rural uprisings more than urban unrest. Cities have dense layers of police, SWAT units, security guards, and urban management officers. Rural areas do not. If hundreds of millions of migrant workers return home at the same time, local enforcement will be unable to contain the pressure.
Already, farmer resistance is spreading. On Oct. 31, a major confrontation erupted in Qiongzhong, Hainan, after the Hainan Rubber Group cut down villagers’ betel nut trees. The trees were their primary income source. Video showed crowds hurling stones and debris, overturning vehicles, and tearing down the company sign to loud cheers.
Villagers said rubber plantations yield low profit and require constant labor, unlike betel nut, which offers higher earnings with far less work. They viewed the company’s move as an attack on their livelihoods.
People-power movements abroad deepen Beijing’s fear
Chen noted that recent uprisings abroad have unsettled Zhongnanhai.
In Bangladesh, mass protests toppled Hasina, a leader with ties to elite families. In Syria, public resistance challenged long-entrenched authoritarian power. And in Nepal, backlash against proposed Chinese-style internet controls triggered a sudden collapse of the communist-led government.
These foreign examples, Chen argues, have left Beijing uneasy. If similar momentum spreads to China’s countryside, the authorities know they may not be able to control it.
He believes the government’s recent directives are not just warnings—they are admissions that unrest may already be on the horizon.
