By Li Jingyao
Rumors have intensified around Li Xi — a member of China’s powerful Politburo Standing Committee and head of the country’s top anti-corruption body — after he missed two Politburo meetings and a study session. Such absences are exceedingly rare for someone in his position. His sudden disappearance has fueled speculation that he may be in political jeopardy. Analysts warn that if Li is ultimately implicated in the expanding corruption case surrounding Ma Xingrui, it could signal that a major faction is moving against officials personally elevated by Xi Jinping.
A powerful faction moves against Xi’s trusted officials
Anti-CCP commentator Jiang Wangzheng alleged on X that both Li Xi and Ma Xingrui were absent from the Dec. 8 Politburo meeting. Jiang had previously claimed that Li was entangled in Ma’s case, which reportedly involves roughly 3 trillion RMB. Authorities have allegedly searched Ma’s residences in both Beijing and Guangzhou.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun noted that Li Xi and Ma Xingrui previously worked together in Guangdong and that their spouses had long-standing business ties. “How much they took, how they divided it, and whether it will eventually point to Li Xi — the man leading China’s anti-corruption apparatus — remains to be seen,” Cai said. “If it does point to him, then we’re in for a dramatic turn. It would also underscore the pattern: CCDI chiefs who prosecute others often end up being investigated themselves.”
Cai added that Li Xi is only halfway through his term. “If Ma’s case drags him in, it likely means a powerful faction is actively clearing out Xi’s protégés. And for those promoted by Xi, any sign of disloyalty comes with harsh consequences.”
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Signs Xi Jinping’s grip is weakening
Cai said he has heard claims within political circles that “Xi Jinping’s days in office are now being counted month by month,” reflecting a growing perception that Xi’s position may be weakening. He described a political system that “no longer functions, from the top down,” and argued that the deeper crisis is financial: “There is simply no money — not in Beijing, not in the provinces.”
Even traditionally wealthy regions such as Jiangsu are reportedly struggling to pay salaries. “The economic numbers look stable on paper, but the fiscal reality is near collapse,” Cai said. “Xi can give endless speeches, but officials need money to govern. Without money, his slogans carry no weight.”
Li Xi’s troubles don’t necessarily threaten Xi
Commentator Zhang Tianliang noted that Li Xi’s absence is highly unusual, given that CCDI chiefs rarely leave Beijing and almost never miss Politburo meetings held in the capital.
Zhang pointed to several signs that Li may indeed be in political trouble. The official readout from the Dec. 8 Politburo meeting omitted routine references to Xi receiving the annual CCDI work report and preparing for the next CCDI plenary session. It also made no mention of anti-corruption work and set no date for the next CCDI meeting — omissions Zhang argued indicate a serious disruption inside the agency.
Still, he emphasized that Li Xi’s potential fall would not directly threaten Xi Jinping’s authority. “Li’s power is entirely derived from Xi,” Zhang said. “If Xi loses power, Li loses his automatically — but not the other way around.”
Upcoming moments that will reveal Li Xi’s future
Zhang outlined three political checkpoints that will signal whether Li Xi is truly in jeopardy:
December: The Politburo’s annual “democratic life” meeting, where each member must speak. Observers will be watching carefully to see whether Li appears.
January: The CCDI plenary session. Whether Li presides will be a critical indicator.
February: A meeting where Politburo Standing Committee members report directly to Xi, who traditionally comments on each official’s performance.
“If Li Xi is absent from all three,” Zhang said, “then either he is gravely ill or he has already fallen.”
Why some analysts think Li Xi is still safe
Other commentators argue that Li Xi is unlikely to be purged. Analyst Tang Jingyuan suggested that Li’s absence may simply reflect the fact that he is overseeing the investigation into Ma Xingrui rather than becoming a target himself.
Tang also noted that no sitting member of the Politburo Standing Committee has ever been formally investigated — even during the most aggressive phase of Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. And he stressed that Li Xi is not part of Xi’s core inner circle.
“Li Xi is not on the same level as Cai Qi or Wang Xiaohong,” Tang said. “He’s described as part of Xi’s faction, but in reality he is a tool — a knife handle. Whoever holds that handle can use it.”
