By Lu Yi-hsin
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced a new round of military exercises encircling Taiwan yesterday, stating that they would include live-fire drills. The announcement immediately drew widespread attention. U.S. President Donald Trump said today that he had seen the relevant developments, but that Xi Jinping had not told him anything. “And I don’t think he would really do it,” Trump said, adding that he was not worried at all.
According to a report by the Central News Agency (CNA), the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command announced on the morning of Dec. 29 that it would conduct the “Justice Mission–2025” exercise around Taiwan. From 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. on the 30th, live-fire drills would take place in airspace and waters surrounding Taiwan. This marks the PLA’s second encirclement exercise around Taiwan this year, following the “Strait Thunder–2025A” drills conducted in April. Trump was asked about his understanding and views of the PLA exercises, and whether he had discussed them with Xi Jinping, during a joint press conference in Florida with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump reiterated that he has a good relationship with Xi Jinping. “He didn’t tell me anything about it. I’ve certainly seen what’s going on, but he didn’t tell me anything, and I don’t think he’s really going to do it. There’s absolutely nothing I’m worried about.”
When reporters pressed him on whether the PLA drills concerned him, Trump responded that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been conducting naval exercises in the region for 20 years. While outside observers may now view the situation differently, in reality, “they’ve done even larger-scale exercises in the past.”
Justice Mission-2025
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Regarding “Justice Mission–2025,” Chinese scholars pointed out that the exercise highlights four new characteristics: “internal line containment, external line denial, air-sea separation, and near- and long-range enemy suppression.” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense subsequently established a response center and, in accordance with regulations governing emergency situations during routine combat readiness periods, deployed appropriate forces to conduct immediate combat readiness drills.
On the timing and motivation behind “Justice Mission–2025,” Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told CNA via email that Beijing may be warning President Lai Ching-te’s government and the Democratic Progressive Party not to significantly increase defense spending. At the same time, CCP leaders may believe it is necessary to demonstrate to the domestic public that the Chinese Communist Party is defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Glaser noted that strengthening the PLA’s operational capabilities is also seen as critical, and that Xi Jinping has instructed the military to be prepared to seize Taiwan by 2027.
She added that it is noteworthy the CCP formally named this exercise—something that is not routine—and that Chinese coast guard and naval vessels crossed beyond the 24-nautical-mile line.
Because this live-fire exercise lasted only one day, compared with four days in August 2022, Glaser said this indicates that “Justice Mission–2025” is a symbolic action meant to express the CCP’s anger without undermining the improving U.S.–China relationship.
“In my view, this exercise underscores the ongoing necessity for Taiwan’s national defense. It also provides further justification for President Lai Ching-te’s proposed US$40 billion special military budget.”
PLA drills part of Xi Jinping’s year-end formalities
Thomas Shattuck, Senior Program Manager at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House, told CNA via email that the exercise may be related to U.S. announcements of arms sales to Taiwan. However, he believes it is simply part of a series of year-end drills that will ultimately conclude with Xi Jinping’s New Year address on Taiwan.
Republican Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart said today that the PLA’s exercises are clearly intended to intimidate free and democratic peoples. In a social media post, he stated that the United States stands with Taiwan and will continue to oppose coercion, aggression, and any actions that threaten regional stability.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton also posted that Taiwan is a strong and reliable partner of the United States and praised the Trump administration’s continued efforts to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
According to a separate report by NOWnews Today, Premier Cho Jung-tai said yesterday that the government of the Republic of China strongly demands that CCP authorities cease all military exercises. Such excessive militarization and armed intimidation will only provoke dissatisfaction among the Taiwanese people and the international community. He added that aircraft and vessels from Taiwan and other countries legally and freely operating in Taiwan’s airspace and waters must have their safety guaranteed by the CCP, without threats or intimidation. Otherwise, the CCP will become an international pariah.
Lieutenant General Hsieh Jih-sheng, Deputy Director of the Office of the Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Intelligence, stated at a temporary press conference that the five exercise zones designated by the CCP encompass Taiwan’s 12-nautical-mile territorial sea baseline, making Beijing’s intent self-evident.
Major General Sun Li-fang, spokesperson for Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, said the interval between the CCP “shifting from training to exercises, and from exercises to war” has been growing shorter, increasing pressure on Taiwan. In response, the ROC Armed Forces have adjusted their readiness posture and training models to effectively counter these threats.
Mysterious aircraft observed
After the PLA announced the Taiwan-encircling drills yesterday, the military-focused social media page “Taiwan ADIZ” reported that a mysterious U.S. military aircraft had arrived near Taiwan, emphasizing that it was “not transmitting signals.”
Another post from “Taiwan ADIZ” mentioned U.S. aircraft approaching Chinese airspace, prompting broadcast warnings from the PLA Air Force. In response, Hsieh confirmed that many aircraft operate along international air routes around the Taiwan Strait, but declined to specify which countries were involved.
According to Taiwan regional security alerts, a CCP drone with the identifier 00CA6181 took off from Jinjiang Airport in Quanzhou, Fujian, and circled in airspace southwest of Penghu. Meanwhile, a U.S. military drone was suspected of appearing over Kaohsiung City. Chinese and U.S. drones were effectively “sparring” over Taiwan, creating a tense standoff during the exercise.
Because the scope of the PLA drills formed a “divided advance and converging attack” encirclement of Taiwan—including the Taiwan Shoal, an important fishing ground near Penghu—concerns arose among fishermen. The drills coincided with peak season for Spanish mackerel fishing, often referred to as “platinum,” with many Penghu fishing vessels operating in the area. The sudden announcement of large-scale PLA exercises caused significant anxiety among fishermen. The Coast Guard Administration subsequently dispatched the Lienchiang patrol vessel to conduct patrols, ready to assist fishermen and safeguard their livelihoods.
