By Li Jingyao, Vision Times
Rumors are swirling that a major Chinese Communist Party (CCP) “big tiger” figure could fall in 2026, with multiple sources pointing to Ma Xingrui, a longtime confidant of Chinese President Xi Jinping and former Party secretary of Xinjiang. While Beijing has not released any official announcement, analysts say mounting signs suggest the CCP may already be preparing Ma’s downfall, following a familiar three-stage internal script used in past high-profile purges within the CCP’s top echelons.
RELATED: Ma Xingrui Absent From CCP Mourning Protocol as Hu Jintao Resurfaces
All signs point to Ma
On Jan. 1, 2026, the CCP’s flagship theoretical journal Qiushi published Xi Jinping’s article, “Study and Implement the Spirit of the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee.” The piece, which was adapted from Xi’s closed-door remarks at the plenum, was widely viewed as a political signal.
Xi wrote that the Party must “maintain a high-pressure anti-corruption posture, without pause or retreat,” while emphasizing ideological discipline and the need to “ensure the red regime never changes color.” But just one day later, Hong Kong’s “Sing Tao Daily” interpreted the speech as a sign that Beijing’s “thunderous anti-corruption campaign” would continue into 2026 and that another “big tiger” could soon emerge.
Success
You are now signed up for our newsletter
Success
Check your email to complete sign up
RELATED: Ma Xingrui Absent Again From Politburo, Fueling Probe Speculation
That speculation quickly turned toward Ma Xingrui. Political commentator Li Linyi told overseas Chinese-language media that only a Politburo-level official would qualify as a true “big tiger,” adding that Ma fits the profile precisely. Ma, a core member of Xi’s inner circle, has deep ties to China’s military-industrial sector as well as to political networks in Guangdong and Xinjiang.
“Nearly all senior officials purged in recent years, including top PLA figures, were personally promoted by Xi,” Li said. “Ma Xingrui is no exception. The crisis facing Xi’s own faction is far from over.”
Australia-based anti-CCP blogger Jiang Wangzheng went even further, predicting Ma would become the CCP’s “sacrificial tiger” of the Year of the Horse in 2026.
The CCP’s three-step playbook
U.S.-based political analyst Wang Youqun argues that Ma’s political fate may already be sealed. In his view, the CCP typically removes senior officials through a three-step process—all of which appear to be unfolding.
Step One: Quiet removal On July 1, 2025, state media announced that Chen Xiaojiang would replace Ma as Xinjiang Party secretary. The report added that Ma would receive “another assignment”—a phrase that in CCP parlance often signals sidelining rather than promotion.
Yet months later, no new post has ever been announced. Though Ma briefly appeared at select events after returning to Beijing, including the Sept. 3, 2025 military parade, observers noted his visible nervousness on camera. He seemed restless and kept wiping sweat off his brow. The absence of any formal reassignment strongly suggests internal trouble, Wang said, likely stemming from preliminary disciplinary probes already conducted by the CCP’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).
Step Two: Isolation and investigation Signs of Ma’s disappearance from public life soon became unmistakable. Beginning in late November 2025, Ma was absent from a string of major CCP events, including:
- A Politburo collective study session (Nov. 28)
- The Central Economic Work Conference (Dec. 10–11)
- The annual Politburo “democratic life meeting” (Dec. 25–26)
He also failed to send wreaths to multiple high-profile state funerals—an unusual omission for a sitting Politburo member. Analysts believe Ma may have already been placed under shuanggui-style isolation well before these absences became public.
Step Three: Official announcement when the timing is right
Historically, the CCP delays public confirmation of senior officials’ downfall until it aligns with broader political needs. Wang notes that former Politburo member Zhou Yongkang was detained in December 2013, but his fall was not announced until July 2014. Similarly, former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe were investigated months before their cases were formally disclosed in mid-2024.
“By this logic,” Wang said, “Ma Xingrui has already fallen. What remains is the choice of timing.”
Whether Ma’s case is announced ahead of a major Party meeting, or held in reserve as a political bargaining chip, remains uncertain. But the pattern is familiar, and the signs are difficult to ignore. As with previous purges, Beijing’s silence may itself be the loudest signal of all. For now, the question is not whether Ma Xingrui will fall, but when the CCP decides the moment is right to say so.
Editorial note: Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Vision Times.
