By Xiao Ran, Commentary
A major political shift is unfolding in Japan, with analysts suggesting the country may be entering a new era of constitutional debate and expanded regional security responsibility.
According to results from Japan’s 51st House of Representatives election announced on Feb. 9, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, reportedly secured 316 of 465 seats, surpassing the two-thirds threshold required to initiate constitutional revision. Observers say the outcome signals not only a dramatic change in Japan’s domestic political landscape, but also a potentially profound shift in the Indo-Pacific strategic order.
RELATED: Washington Post: Takaichi Victory Signals US Advantage Against China
Commentator Feng Zhiqiang and Canada-based Chinese writer and democracy advocate Sheng Xue told Vision Times that the election reflects the release of long-suppressed anxieties within Japanese society over national identity, security threats, and regional responsibility. They argue its ripple effects could reshape Japan’s constitutional trajectory, the U.S.–Japan alliance, cross-strait tensions, and the future of Sino-Japanese relations.
A new political framework
Success
You are now signed up for our newsletter
Success
Check your email to complete sign up
Feng Zhiqiang said the election’s significance lies in Japan entering an unprecedented political phase. “Japan has undergone a political transformation. Now the LDP dominates the House of Representatives, and the bills it promotes will pass without suspense. This is a legitimate expectation.”
He noted that even constitutional revision, long treated as a political taboo, may no longer face institutional barriers. “Even major legislation such as constitutional amendments requiring a two-thirds majority will be unquestionable,” he said. Feng also argued that Japan’s long-standing status as an “abnormal country” stems from its post–World War II constitutional constraints.
RELATED: Japan’s Election Rebukes Beijing, Leaving Xi Jinping Facing Seven Strategic Dead Ends
“Due to its defeat in World War II, Japan has long remained in an abnormal national position. After more than 70 years of reflection and contributions to global peace, Japan is at the point where it should pursue a process of national normalization through legislation,” said Feng. He added that the election result singal a clear mandate from Japanese society to restore what many view as Japan’s rightful status.
Bolstering US-Japan relations
On U.S.–Japan relations, Feng said the alliance is undergoing a fundamental transformation. “The U.S.–Japan military alliance has focused on defense. Because Japan operates under a pacifist constitution, its self-defense capabilities have been limited, and the United States has provided military support. For America, this is a commitment and an obligation.”
But amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, and Beijing’s growing military reach beyond the first island chain, Japan can no longer remain merely a passive beneficiary of U.S. protection. “The responsibilities of the alliance naturally must adapt,” said Feng, adding that Japan must now play a more active role.
“Japan must not only emphasize self-defense, but also assume responsibility as a stabilizing factor for peace and security in nearby regions,” said Feng, described the alliance’s evolution as moving toward “joint cooperation to safeguard East Asia and Indo-Pacific stability.”
On the Taiwan issue
Feng emphasized that Taiwan’s strategic importance to Japan is rapidly increasing. Historically, he noted Taiwan’s unresolved international status has persisted since World War II. “Taiwan was ceded to Japan under the Treaty of Shimonoseki, and after Japan’s defeat it relinquished its colonial role, yet Taiwan’s sovereignty or status has never been definitively settled by international legal authority.”
In practical terms, Feng argued, the Taiwan Strait is indispensable to Japan’s economic survival. “Both Japan and South Korea rely on trade routes that must pass through the Taiwan Strait,” he said. With Beijing increasingly claiming the strait as an “internal sea,” Japan’s political sense of urgency has intensified. “Takaichi has long stated that ‘a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency.’”
Feng also stressed this is not emotional rhetoric, but strategic calculation. “Taiwan lies across the Taiwan Strait, so Taiwan’s political, economic, and even military security is deeply tied to Japan’s national fate.” He said stronger Japan–Taiwan cooperation may now accelerate. “Japan helping Taiwan change its abnormal international status would not be surprising.”
A trilateral security foundation
Sheng Xue framed the election as reinforcing a trilateral security foundation. “The deeper meaning of Takaichi’s victory is that it stabilizes the foundation of U.S.–Japan–Taiwan cooperation,” she said, adding that Japan has “long been constrained” by postwar structures.
“Japan has been limping in Asia-Pacific security,” said Sheng, but now Takaichi has received historic public authorization to lead Japan into a more “normal” national role. Sheng highlighted what she described as strategic alignment between Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump. “Trump values strength, and Takaichi values autonomous defense. This partnership sends a clear signal: in the Indo-Pacific, the cost of provocation will become extremely high.”
She described an emerging alignment: “President Trump in Washington, Prime Minister Takaichi in Tokyo, and President Lai Ching-te in Taipei; these three form an unprecedented community of will.”
Sheng concluded that Japan’s shift may open new international space for Taiwan. “Only when Taiwan is seen as an independent international contributor, rather than someone’s subordinate, can peace in the Taiwan Strait be most secure.”
