“If it weren’t absolutely unavoidable, I would never sell it at this kind of loss. I’ve been on the verge of collapse every day this month. The apartment faces southeast with great ventilation, and I truly love the panoramic floor-to-ceiling windows. It feels comfortable and warm. All the furniture and appliances were carefully selected by me, and every part of the renovation was personally designed.”
At the end of last month, Shanghai introduced a new housing support policy known as the “Seven Measures for Shanghai.” State media quickly released numerous reports highlighting a surge in buyer inquiries, giving the impression that a new wave of home purchases was emerging.
But several Shanghai-based bloggers say the reality on the ground looks very different from the optimistic tone of those reports.
When discussing China’s real estate sector, one company frequently mentioned is China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (COLI). Headquartered in Hong Kong and owned by a central state-owned enterprise under China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the developer has long been regarded as one of the industry’s strongest players.
China Overseas has consistently ranked among the Fortune Global 500 and is widely seen as a benchmark in China’s high-end housing market because of its focus on prime locations and luxury developments.
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Recently, the company released its latest sales data. In February 2026, contracted property sales totaled about 8.46 billion yuan (approximately $1.17 billion USD), a year-on-year drop of 36 percent. Sales floor area declined even more sharply, falling 45 percent compared with the same period last year.
A Shanghai financial blogger known as “Dan Xiaohuang” said the figures reflect a deeper shift in the market.
Developers try to hold the line
While developers are still trying to hold the line on prices per square meter, he noted, transaction volumes have collapsed. Even the high-end residential market targeted by China Overseas is struggling to attract buyers.
“A few days ago I saw a Shanghai real estate agent post something on social media that sent chills down my spine,” the blogger said.
According to the post, a relatively new apartment near two subway lines in Shanghai’s Songjiang District was purchased in 2019 for 4.8 million yuan (about $670,000 USD). The same property is now listed for 1.45 million yuan (about $200,000 USD)—a loss of 3.35 million yuan, or roughly 70 percent.
“Plenty of people come to view the property, but no one dares to buy,” the blogger said.
“The owner sits at the agency office every day, saying that if someone is serious about purchasing, the price can still be negotiated. Five years ago, if someone had said an apartment near two subway lines in Shanghai could lose 70 percent of its value, people would have thought they were crazy.”
The blogger said a friend who works as a real estate agent in Shanghai told him that when the development was first launched, it was heavily promoted as being located near two subway lines. The marketing attracted many investors.
Prices were pushed from 30,000 yuan per square meter to as high as 58,000 yuan per square meter.
Shanghai speculators chased profit
The homeowner, identified as Mr. Li, bought the apartment at the peak in 2019. He nearly emptied his family’s savings and took on more than 2 million yuan (about $280,000 USD) in mortgage debt.
At the time, he expected to sell the property once prices reached 70,000 yuan per square meter and make a profit.
Instead, the market began to decline in 2021. Prices fell from 58,000 yuan per square meter to about 25,000 yuan today.
Even with the apartment now listed at 1.45 million yuan—a decline of about 70 percent—it still has not attracted a buyer.
Real estate agents say more than 30 units in the same complex are currently listed for sale, while only two units were sold during the entire previous year. The average time needed to close a transaction has stretched to about a year and a half.
The blogger also described a personal situation involving relatives.
“One of our relatives in Shanghai has an apartment. Before, they didn’t sell it even when someone offered 4 million yuan (about $560,000 USD). Now they’re planning to sell it for 1.58 million yuan (about $220,000 USD). My parents are a bit tempted because we’re relatives, and they say they would prioritize selling it to us.”
“My mother spoke to me very seriously about it last night and asked whether we should consider buying it. My feelings are complicated. The first question is whether we actually have that much money. They want the payment in full—1.58 million yuan in cash.”
The blogger said his family could gather only about 600,000 yuan (around $83,000 USD). The remaining nearly 1 million yuan would have to be borrowed from relatives and friends.
Faced with such heavy debt, the family has hesitated to proceed.
Some online commenters advised him not to buy property from relatives at all. They suggested that if he truly wants to purchase a home, going through a real estate agency would be safer. Whether prices rise or fall, resentment can easily develop between relatives, potentially damaging family relationships.
The blogger also warned that if Shanghai home prices were to fall another 30 percent, the consequences could be severe.
He said the middle class could face widespread financial distress. Businesses could shut down and layoffs could increase sharply. Divorce rates might rise, and the number of foreclosure auctions could surge as homeowners become unable to service their mortgages.
Property valuation plunged by half
Another blogger described a similar experience after speaking with a real estate agent from the brokerage firm Lianjia.
“We bought our apartment at the end of 2021, and the recent transaction price has already been cut in half,” he said. “The price per square meter has dropped about 50 percent.”
“This is really shocking. Before, we thought prices might decline somewhat, but no one expected them to fall this dramatically. And we’re inside Shanghai’s inner ring road.”
He had originally planned to save money to upgrade to a larger home. But after speaking with the agent, he abandoned the idea. Instead, he decided to renovate the current apartment rather than risk buying another property in the current market.
The blogger also described what he believes are three realities many people encounter when trying to build a life in Shanghai.
First, wages are not as high as many people imagine. Many basic jobs pay only 5,000 to 6,000 yuan (about $700 to $830 USD) per month, while even in the city center salaries of 7,000 to 8,000 yuan are common. Monthly incomes above 10,000 yuan are less common than outsiders might assume.
Second, buying property in Shanghai remains extremely difficult. Housing prices are so high that many families must exhaust their savings simply to assemble a down payment.
Third, living expenses are substantial. A bowl of noodles can cost more than 20 yuan (about $3 USD). Dining out with colleagues often costs around 200 yuan per person. Renting an apartment near a subway station can cost 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per month.
After covering basic expenses, many migrant workers in Shanghai save very little each month.
For that reason, the blogger advised people considering moving to Shanghai to plan carefully before making the decision.
“Home prices really cannot fall any further,” he said. “If they keep dropping, many families will go bankrupt.”
“For many households, a home represents the savings of several generations.”
“If your property is worth 10 million yuan (about $1.39 million USD), losing one or two million in just a few months is common. If your property is worth 5 million yuan (about $695,000 USD), losing around one million yuan is also typical.”
“People want to sell but cannot find buyers. That has become a widespread problem among Shanghai homeowners.”
Restrictions need to be lifted
Another commentator argued that Shanghai should immediately remove home-purchase restrictions.
“Shanghai housing prices cannot fall further. If prices in smaller cities fall by 60 or 70 percent, it may not matter as much. But if Shanghai prices drop 30 or 40 percent, that could mean a loss of four or five million yuan for a single apartment. A family may never recover financially.”
If prices were to decline another 30 percent, the blogger predicted that industries linked to real estate could face widespread layoffs. Real estate and its upstream and downstream sectors account for a significant share of China’s economic activity.
At the same time, middle-class wealth could shrink dramatically. For many households, property represents the largest component of family assets, and many homes are financed with mortgages.
A further drop in housing prices could also trigger widespread mortgage defaults, increasing bad loans in the financial system and pushing more properties into foreclosure auctions.
“How many people in Shanghai have already stopped paying their mortgages?” another blogger asked.
“The number of foreclosure properties is rising steadily. More than 100 new cases are being added every month.”
Districts such as Minhang and Yangpu have seen a growing number of foreclosure listings. Behind each property is a household struggling under financial pressure.
Some homeowners have experienced pay cuts or job losses and can no longer afford monthly mortgage payments. Others purchased homes at peak prices and now find their properties have become negative assets, prompting them to stop paying their loans.
Some owners suffered business failures and mounting debt, leaving them no choice but to have their homes auctioned to repay creditors.
Once a property enters foreclosure, auctions typically begin at about 70 percent of market value, and sometimes even at 50 or 60 percent.
Such steep discounts can accelerate price declines even further.
For that reason, the blogger concluded that anyone considering buying property should carefully evaluate their financial capacity before making a decision.
