As tensions in the Middle East escalate and volatility in energy markets intensifies, new uncertainties have emerged regarding both the schedule and agenda of a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping. Rising oil prices, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and the war involving Iran are becoming intertwined factors shaping the strategic rivalry between the United States and China.
According to Semafor, rising global oil prices could provide Trump with additional leverage in a future “Trump–Xi meeting.”
Energy policy scholar Brenda Shaffer of the Naval Postgraduate School said that over the past period, Trump’s signature “energy dominance” strategy has, in practice, benefited China. Low oil prices reduced China’s energy costs while also forcing Russia to offer deeper discounts.
However, that situation is now changing. Although China has strengthened its resilience by expanding oil and gas reserves and developing renewable energy, it still faces clear pressure if oil prices remain elevated for an extended period.
Shaffer noted that higher oil prices would strengthen Trump’s negotiating position. “Given his style, he prefers to enter negotiations with an advantage.”
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She added that Washington will likely use the Trump-Xi summit to push China to increase purchases of U.S. crude oil. However, due to financial, political, and logistical considerations, China is unlikely to abandon its existing energy cooperation with Russia in the short term.
War with Iran disrupts Trump-Xi summit timeline
NBC News reported that the timing of the closely watched “Trump–Xi summit” has become uncertain. Trump said he plans to postpone the trip “by about a month” because he must prioritize dealing with the expanding conflict involving Iran.
The change is closely tied to the ongoing military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran. Because Iran maintains close ties with China, the conflict has introduced another potential point of friction in U.S.–China relations.
The summit had originally been expected to focus primarily on trade issues, with both sides interested in extending the fragile tariff “truce” reached earlier. However, the White House has not formally confirmed whether the visit will be postponed and has not released a new schedule. China’s Foreign Ministry responded that it had “no additional information,” saying only that the two sides remain in communication.
Dominic Chiu, an analyst on U.S.–China relations at the Eurasia Group, said preparations on the U.S. side appear insufficient at present, including a lack of clearly defined outcome goals and limited preparation of a business delegation.
He said a delay could actually give both sides more time to coordinate and help avoid rushed negotiations.
Limited expectations leave room for pragmatic deals
The report noted that the latest round of U.S.–China trade talks held in Paris recently had a relatively constructive atmosphere but produced no joint statement of results, leaving overall expectations for the summit relatively low.
Analysts believe the chances of reaching a “major agreement” are declining. Instead, both sides may focus on smaller items that are easier to agree on, such as:
- China increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products and energy
- Strengthening efforts to curb the circulation of fentanyl precursor chemicals
- Exploring adjustments to certain tariff arrangements
In addition, after the Supreme Court of the United States recently halted some global tariffs, Beijing also views the summit as an opportunity to push for tariff reductions.
Strait of Hormuz crisis intensifies energy rivalry
As Iran imposes what it calls an “effective blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping and energy prices have fluctuated sharply. Trump is seeking naval support from countries that rely on the waterway and has publicly asked whether China would participate.
However, U.S. officials emphasized that any delay of the China visit is unrelated to Beijing’s stance on the Hormuz issue.
Analysts note that although China is highly dependent on energy imports, roughly half—not the 90 percent cited by Trump—of its oil shipments pass through the strait. China is also a significant oil and gas producer itself and continues expanding its strategic reserves.
Tim Huxley, head of the Hong Kong shipping firm Mandarin Shipping, said China’s energy supply could likely hold for several months in the short term. But if the blockade continues, pressure will gradually build.
“The longer it drags on, the more difficult the situation becomes,” he said.
