The United States has begun the process of refunding an estimated $166 billion in tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), after the Supreme Court ruled the measures illegal on Feb. 20.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said it is developing a new digital system within its Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) to manage the refund process. The system, known as the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE), will serve as an electronic portal for importers to submit claims for tariff refunds.
Over 60 countries’ exports are potentially subject to the refunds. Topping the list are China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union as a block, India, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the UK.
The rollout is being implemented in phases. The first phase, launched April 20, applies only “to certain unliquidated entries and certain entries within 80 days of liquidation.”
UPS, the world’s largest package delivery company, said the initial phase covers select tariff payments beginning Jan. 30, as well as pending claims, with refunds expected within 30 to 90 days.
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Central to the process is the “importer of record (IoR)” — the entity that originally paid the tariffs. Court filings cited by Al Jazeera show that 56,497 IoRs had filed refund claims totaling $127 billion as of April 9.
Phased tariff refund process raises concerns about complexity
The tariff refund process has sparked concern among businesses and trade analysts over its complexity and potential economic impact.
Critics say the phased rollout introduces uncertainty, particularly for companies navigating multiple eligibility criteria and administrative requirements.
Thomson Reuters Tax & Accounting said the “phased approach” creates “multiple layers of uncertainty,” complicating planning and resource allocation.
“Companies must determine which entries qualify for initial processing versus manual review while managing documentation requirements across potentially thousands of affected shipments,” it said.
The system also places added operational pressure on importers, who must manage refund filings alongside ongoing customs compliance and daily business operations.
“The phased rollout creates unpredictable cash flow implications as companies cannot determine when specific refunds will be processed,” the firm said, noting that the uncertainty affects capital planning and financial forecasting.
Small importers, in particular, worry that the administrative costs of filing claims may outweigh the benefits of receiving refunds.
Consumer woes continue despite tariff rollback
While importers stand to recover billions, analysts say the impact on consumer prices is likely to be minimal.
“The odds of consumers seeing savings after the Supreme Court’s ruling will likely be negligible,” Forbes said in a Tuesday, April 21 report.
Goldman Sachs analysts Alec Phillips, Elsie Peng, and David Mericle said in late February that price reductions tend to lag behind cost increases.
“We would not expect companies to lower prices in response to tariff reductions nearly as quickly as they increased them in response to tariff increases,” they wrote, according to Inkl.
An April 20 report by The Seattle Times also suggested that refunds are unlikely to benefit small businesses or consumers directly.
Brian Kelly, a Seattle University associate economics professor, told the outlet that importers won’t be obligated to share their tariff refunds with anyone.
“If you are a steakhouse and you have suffered higher costs for imported beef, and then your suppliers are saying, ‘Well, yeah, they’re paying our tariffs back, but we aren’t going to be refunding you any of that,’ would you then lower prices for your customers? Probably not,”Kelly said.
