By Jingyao Li
Reports from Beijing suggest an unusual development involving Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Zhang traveled to Russia on Nov. 20 at Moscow’s invitation, but more than a week later, Chinese state media have offered no updates on his visit. His whereabouts remain unknown, fueling speculation that he was either detained by Vladimir Putin or taken into custody by Xi Jinping upon returning to China.
News of Zhang’s trip was released on Nov. 20 through the Ministry of National Defense website.
However, major state outlets such as Xinhua and People’s Daily remained silent. A full week has passed without confirmation of Zhang’s return or any reports of further activities in Moscow.
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This silence triggered speculation—from claims that Putin detained him to suggestions that Xi ordered his arrest after returning to Beijing.
U.S.-based commentator Lei Ge noted that since last year’s Third Plenum, media coverage of Zhang has shifted: official reports appear only after Zhang has already returned from overseas trips.
For this Moscow visit, the Ministry of National Defense issued only a brief notice, which the military news website reposted. But Xinhua, People’s Daily, and PLA Daily offered no coverage at all.
Lei pointed out that Zhang met Serbian Defense Minister Gasic on Nov. 6, and PLA Daily ran the story the next day. But this time—despite the significance of a Russia visit—the military paper stayed silent.
Lei said he had monitored the Ministry of National Defense website, PLA Daily, and Russian sources closely, but found no updates on Zhang’s activities. He commented: “What kind of visit lasts a full week like this? It’s impossible.”
He believes that if Zhang had returned to China, Xinhua would normally publish a brief report. The absence of any mention suggests “something major has happened.”
Another anomaly emerged: the Nov. 20 report on the military website briefly disappeared before being restored. The Ministry of National Defense posting, however, remained visible.
State media silence deepens the mystery
Lei outlined several possibilities.
The first is that Putin kept Zhang in Russia to discuss updates to a proposed Russia–Ukraine peace plan, reportedly adjusted from 28 points to 19 or 22 points. Lei considers this unlikely, saying Putin would not detain Zhang over such matters.
A second possibility is that Zhang returned to China but the authorities avoided reporting it. Lei said that breaking this longstanding reporting pattern would indicate that “something very serious has happened.”
Another online theory is that Putin poisoned Zhang. Lei rejects this as improbable, arguing that Putin and Xi engage in mutual strategic use and Putin would not take such a risk. He said he would continue watching developments.
A fourth possibility is that Zhang returned—or was still en route—when something happened, such as an aviation incident or an immediate arrest upon landing.
Lei noted that internal information suggests Zhang has been living under heightened protection: working daily at the Bayi Building and sleeping at the wartime command center in Beijing’s Western Hills, seldom returning home.
There were rumors that Wang Xiaohong’s public security system attempted multiple assassination attempts but failed.
Commentator Xiao Shuojia also believes Zhang may have been detained. He argued that the situation has entered a highly sensitive phase.
He speculated that “Zhang may have returned but encountered an internal incident during the return process or immediately after landing. Xi’s faction has been severely weakened, and an overseas trip offers the best timing to strike.”
He added that deletion of the military website report is telling. “If Zhang has already returned but is now being restricted, the first thing authorities would control is public information. Zhang may have been ordered to ‘rest’ and is undergoing internal investigation while his faction is being cut off.”
Disappearance comes during major military turmoil
Xiao argues that the abnormal situation surrounding Zhang’s whereabouts is particularly alarming given the tense political environment.
As the military’s most powerful figure, Zhang’s extended absence—along with silence from both Chinese and Russian media—signals a highly unusual development.
He noted that Zhang emerged as the stabilizing force after the downfall of several top generals, including He Weidong and Miao Hua.
With nine generals purged in three months and signs of military restructuring after the Fourth Plenum, Zhang became the key figure holding the chain of command together. Xi, he said, has tried to regain control but failed.
In this tense context, the disappearance of Zhang Youxia “must be related to political struggle.”
Xiao added that the event occurred at a highly sensitive moment:
— after the Fourth Plenum,
— amid military reshuffling,
— during volatile China–Russia dynamics, and
— as Xi’s weakened faction attempts a counteroffensive.
Whether Zhang reappears soon, he said, will determine whether this is a false alarm or a sign of major political upheaval.
Some analysts argue that Putin would not detain Zhang.
A commentator using the pseudonym “Mainland Ordinary Person” said that although Putin and Xi maintain close cooperation, Putin would not risk provoking Beijing.
Zhang was reportedly welcomed with high-level protocol:a red carpet, honor guards, and a cannon salute. If Putin believed Xi was losing power, he would treat Zhang even more courteously — not detain him.
Given the opaque nature of CCP operations, Zhang Youxia’s disappearance remains unresolved. His status — and whether he reappears — will require continued observation.
