On Sept. 10, 2025, conservative political activist Charlie Kirk was tragically shot and killed while giving a speech at Utah Valley University. Before his death, he was fully committed to promoting his close friend, current Vice President Vance, as the next President of the United States. Now, his widow, Erika Kirk, is determined to carry on her husband’s mission and achieve this goal.
At Turning Point USA’s first major event since Kirk’s assassination—the AmericaFest conference—Erika Kirk delivered the opening address to over 30,000 attendees. She declared firmly: “We will make sure, in the loudest and most decisive way, that my husband’s friend Vance is elected the 48th President of the United States in 2028.”
The four-day event concluded on Dec. 21 in Phoenix, with Vice President Vance personally attending and delivering the closing speech. Behind the scenes, Turning Point USA is quietly building the infrastructure to pave the way for a potential 2028 presidential campaign for Vance. According to the organization’s senior executive Taylor Bauer, Turning Point plans to station representatives in all 99 counties of Iowa to prepare for the presidential primaries.
Iowa, as an early and influential state in the presidential nomination process, has long attracted attention. Bauer, a close friend of Kirk, told reporters backstage: “Why get tangled up? Let the Democrats fight it out in the primaries. We have the rare luxury of a clear frontrunner.” He emphasized that Vance is already the obvious leader within the Republican Party, with little need for internal conflict.
Although 41-year-old Vance has not officially declared his candidacy, he is already positioned as President Trump’s successor. The best-selling memoir author of Hick Elegy, Vance previously worked in Silicon Valley and was elected U.S. Senator from Ohio in 2022. President Trump has publicly and privately stated that Vance is the most likely heir, often mentioning him alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The two maintain a close relationship, and Rubio has explicitly stated he will not challenge Vance for the nomination.
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Turning Point USA, founded by Kirk, boasts thousands of members, a vast media operation, and a political organization network. If fully mobilized, it would provide Vance with a significant advantage. The organization has grown into a central force within the young conservative movement, encompassing faith outreach, media operations, and voter mobilization.
Turning Point’s efforts a ‘decisive factor’
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles previously noted that Turning Point’s efforts to mobilize young voters and Trump supporters in the 2024 election were a “decisive factor.” Particularly in swing states such as Arizona (where the organization is headquartered) and Wisconsin, the group helped Trump reverse his 2020 losses. The organization plans further expansion in preparation for the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.
Kirk’s support was crucial to Vance’s rise. With Kirk’s endorsement, Vance quickly emerged from political newcomer to rising star. Kirk not only connected him with donors but also introduced him to Trump’s inner circle and actively advocated for Trump to select Vance as his vice-presidential running mate. Kirk repeatedly emphasized that Vance should become the next president.
The two maintained close contact, communicating nearly daily via text and group chats. After the Sept. 10 shooting, news quickly spread through the chat, and Vance immediately rushed to the Oval Office to inform Trump. He then personally flew on Air Force Two to escort Kirk’s body back from Utah to Arizona.
During his conference speech, Vance called for easing divisions within the “MAGA movement.” The event saw intense debates within the Republican Party over free speech and anti-Semitism. Prominent podcaster Ben Shapiro, speaking Thursday, urged party influencers to condemn, rather than elevate, figures like Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist and Holocaust denier.
Vance took the opposite stance, stating: “President Trump did not build the greatest alliance in political history by passing endless purity tests of self-destruction.” He emphasized: “Every American is welcome. We don’t care if you are white or Black, rich or poor, young or old, rural or urban, controversial or a little boring, or somewhere in between.”
Vance says Kirk’s movement was about ‘debate’
Vance shares views similar to former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who was also criticized by Shapiro. Vance said Kirk’s movement was fundamentally about debate. “Charlie invited all of us here because he believed each of us had something worth saying. He trusted you to make your own judgment. We have more important work than canceling each other.”
Many Turning Point loyalists at the event shared Kirk’s vision for Vance. Reporters interviewed more than a dozen attendees; most hoped to see Vance succeed Trump or at least view him as the clear frontrunner.
Marian Golin, a 72-year-old retiree from Houston, was impressed by Kirk’s support for Vance: “He was great at reading people, had an intuition about the heart, and knew their true nature.” Her husband Don Golin added that Vance’s collaboration with Trump prepared him for succession.
Brooke-Lynn Allred, a 20-year-old student from Alaska, felt Vance, being younger, better understood young people: “He’s more approachable, he gets us.” She slightly preferred Vance but also accepted Rubio. Most respondents hoped to see a Vance-Rubio ticket.
A few attendees noted that although Vance is leading, they did not want him prematurely crowned. “I want to see the primaries; you never know,” said 42-year-old skincare company employee Lindsay Baldwin. “If the election were today, Vance would get my vote. But I’m open to others too.”
Vance leads significantly
Current polling shows Vance leading significantly within the Republican Party. According to the Real Clear Politics average, he is ahead of other candidates by roughly 40 points, with most others below 10%. On the Democratic side, California Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris lead. A recent poll indicated that New York Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez slightly leads Vance in a hypothetical 2028 matchup; she responded, “It’s early, but I would crush him.”
Insiders note that Vance is currently focused on the 2026 midterms, maintaining Republican control of Congress, serving as GOP finance chair, and keeping in contact with the nation’s wealthiest conservative donors. He plans to continue in this role next year and campaign for Trump’s tax reform legislation, despite its poor polling.
Vance’s office declined interviews, but close associates cautiously noted that his candidacy is not yet certain. Poor midterm performance by Republicans could open the door for rivals. The House majority remains undecided, and Senate races, though challenging, are highly competitive.
After Kirk’s assassination, Turning Point, under Erika’s leadership, continues to move forward. She has assumed the role of CEO and vowed to carry on her husband’s mission. AmericaFest attracted over 30,000 young attendees, a record turnout highlighting the organization’s influence. While internal controversies exist, the event remained united under Kirk’s legacy and the MAGA vision.
Kirk’s death shocked U.S. politics, but his empire is fully pivoting to support Vance, suggesting the 2028 Republican primaries could remain relatively calm. Turning Point, as a youth mobilization powerhouse, will play a key role. The evolution of the conservative movement in the coming years will be closely watched.
