By Li Jingyao, Vision Times
As rumors swirl over whether senior military figures Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli have “run into trouble,” new questions are emerging from Beijing’s inner circle. Shi Taifeng, who was absent alongside Zhang and Liu from a high-level cadre seminar earlier this week, failed to appear again on Jan. 21 at another senior meeting, signaling more turmoil within the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) top echelons.
Analysts are divided. Some say Shi’s repeated absence, coupled with the marginalization of Hu Chunhua and Shen Yueyue, deepens suspicions that “something major” is unfolding inside Zhongnanhai. Others counter that rumors about Zhang Youxia are false and argue that a rival camp is pursuing a strategy of letting Xi Jinping undermine his own power base, in what they call “using Xi to bring down Xi.”
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Shi Taifeng absent for a second time
The Central Party School (National Academy of Governance) opened a provincial- and ministerial-level seminar on Jan. 20 to study the spirit of the Fourth Plenum of the 20th Central Committee. Absent were Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, Shi Taifeng, Vice Premier He Lifeng, and Politburo member Ma Xingrui. The Politburo serves as China’s top ruling body.
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The following day, Shi again failed to appear — this time at the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference’s (CPPCC) 2025 Macroeconomic Situation Analysis Symposium. According to Xinhua, the meeting was attended by Politburo Standing Committee member and CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning, and presided over by CPPCC Vice Chair Wang Yong.
Vice chairs Hu Chunhua, Batu, Gao Yunlong, Wang Dongfeng, He Baoxiang, Zhu Yongxin, and Yang Zhen were listed as attendees. No explanation was given for Shi Taifeng’s absence.
Youth league figures sidelined
U.S.-based political commentator Chen Pokong said Shi’s second consecutive absence underscores the gravity of the situation. He highlighted three unusual aspects of the Jan. 21 meeting.
First, Shi Taifeng’s repeated absence from major leadership events. Second, the apparent sidelining of Youth League–affiliated figures. Within the CPPCC hierarchy, Wang Huning is chairman, followed by 23 vice chairs. The top three vice chairs, Shi Taifeng, Hu Chunhua, and Shen Yueyue, are all associated with former Party leader Hu Jintao.
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“If Shi Taifeng was absent due to illness or other reasons, the meeting should have been chaired by Hu Chunhua, followed by Shen Yueyue,” Chen said. “Instead, they were bypassed and Wang Yong, ranked fourth, presided. That is highly irregular. It signals Xi Jinping’s public exclusion of Youth League figures and further points to trouble in Beijing.”
Third, Chen noted Wang Huning’s renewed emphasis on the slogans “the Two Establishes” and “the Two Upholds.” He observed that at the same symposium a year earlier, Wang did not mention these phrases, suggesting a partial return to collective leadership at the time. Now, party media and even PLA publications have again been stressing the slogans, collectively known as “two-four-four-two.”
Chen offered two interpretations: One, that Xi Jinping has successfully mounted a counteroffensive and is again dismantling collective leadership in favor of personal rule. Two, that Xi lacks confidence, having violated constitutional norms and party consensus, and is therefore doubling down on loyalty slogans to shore up authority.
“Shi Taifeng’s second no-show only deepens the mystery,” Chen said, adding, “And when even Hu Chunhua and Shen Yueyue are sidelined, the situation is anything but ordinary.”
A key barometer
Commentator Tang Jingyuan questioned how Xi could possibly detain Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli if the 82nd Group Army remains stationed in Beijing and military authority is still concentrated in their hands. “Even the People’s Armed Police leadership has been reshuffled,” Tang said. “Could Xi really rely on discipline inspectors to stage a comeback?”
Tang argued that if Xi had truly regained the upper hand, he would have had to neutralize a pivotal civilian figure: Hu Chunhua. “Hu’s status is a critical indicator,” he said. “Yet Hu continues to appear normally at major events.” In Tang’s view, Zhang Youxia’s absence from a largely ceremonial seminar is “no big deal.”
Another commentator, writing under the pseudonym Wall Insider, dismissed claims that Zhang and Liu are in trouble as false. He argued that the 82nd Group Army (formerly the 38th Army) has remained in Beijing since last year’s Sept. 3 military parade, effectively controlling the capital. “As long as the 82nd Group Army hasn’t withdrawn, talk of Zhang Youxia being detained is simply not credible,” he said.
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Bringing down the hammer
He noted that similar rumors have previously circulated, such as claims that Zhang was detained in Russia, or that senior figures had fled abroad, only to be proven false. “For CCP elites, winning means meetings in the Great Hall; losing means study sessions in Qincheng Prison. They all understand this fate,” he said.
According to this view, the absence of Zhang, Liu, Shi Taifeng, and He Lifeng from the seminar reflected its limited importance. The broader strategy, the commentator argued, mirrors the logic of Wang Huning’s book America Against America: letting Xi “bring down Xi” by continuing to perform his role until his own network collapses.
Whether the latest absences point to a genuine power struggle or a swirl of misinterpretation remains unclear. What is evident, however, is that repeated no-shows by key figures, the public sidelining of Youth League veterans, and the renewed drumbeat of loyalty slogans are being read, inside and outside China, as signals of mounting tension at the top of the CCP.
Editorial note: This article is based on publicly circulating reports and commentary from independent analysts. The claims described have not been independently verified by Vision Times, and relevant authorities have not publicly confirmed the allegations.
