By Li Jingyao
Recently there has been a chilling development in Beijing’s opaque political arena: rumors that Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and Liu Zhenli, chief of the CMC Joint Staff Department, had both “run into trouble.” The two senior generals simultaneously failed to appear at several important meetings, an unusual absence that immediately ignited speculation of a major upheaval within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Analysts note that elite CCP factional struggles often follow a zero-sum logic—someone must fall. Zhang Youxia, long seen as cautious and indecisive, may not be immune.
Unexplained absences at a high-level Party seminar
On Jan. 20, a special seminar for provincial- and ministerial-level officials on implementing the “spirit of the Fourth Plenum of the 20th CCP Central Committee” opened at the Central Party School (also known as the National Academy of Governance). CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered the keynote speech. Present were Politburo Standing Committee members Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi, along with Vice President Han Zheng.
Conspicuously absent, however, were several senior figures:
- Zhang Youxia, CMC vice chairman
- Liu Zhenli, chief of the CMC Joint Staff Department
- Shi Taifeng, head of the CCP Central Organization Department
- He Lifeng, vice premier of the State Council
- Ma Xingrui, Politburo member
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He Lifeng’s absence was readily explained—he was attending the World Economic Forum in Davos from Jan. 19 to 22. Ma Xingrui, who has repeatedly missed major events and is widely rumored to have fallen from power, raised little surprise.
What drew intense attention were the absences of Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Shi Taifeng—all officials of vice–state rank. This was especially striking given that Zhang Shengmin, recently promoted to second-ranked CMC vice chairman, and Defense Minister Dong Jun both attended as usual. The rare no-shows fueled public speculation that the PLA might be undergoing a “dramatic transformation.”
Online rumors of detention and interrogation
At the same time, the social media platform X was flooded with claims that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli had been detained. One account cryptically declared that “the two CMC vice chairmen of the 20th Party Congress have successfully ‘linked up,’” posting a photo of Zhang alongside fallen general He Weidong.
Anti-CCP blogger Jiang Wangzheng claimed on Jan. 20 that Zhang Youxia had been summoned for questioning, while Zhang’s son and personal secretary were under investigation. He also alleged that Liu Zhenli had been placed under investigation.
Jiang further asserted that Zhong Shaojun—a former senior military political officer—was set to return to prominence, and that future leadership arrangements for the 21st Party Congress were already being mapped out. According to his claims, Xi Jinping would remain CMC chairman, while Li Qiang or Zhao Yide and Zhang Shengmin would serve as vice chairmen, with Zhong Shaojun taking a key role in military discipline or political work.
Most explosively, Jiang alleged that Zhang Youxia had already undergone interrogation led by Cai Qi, a Politburo Standing Committee member and Xi’s close ally. Three other officials—Zhang Yiquan, Shu Guozeng, and Xu Lingyi—were said to have assisted. Cai Qi, Jiang claimed, had persuaded Zhang Youxia to accept early retirement, while Zhang’s son and secretary were reportedly placed under liuzhi, the CCP’s internal detention mechanism.
According to Jiang’s account, Liu Zhenli was taken away for investigation at 10 p.m. on Jan. 18, after which PLA officers in Beijing were ordered to return to their units and await further instructions. Zhang Youxia was questioned the following day and released after completing interrogation.
These claims remain unverified. Yet if true, they would represent one of the most explosive political developments at the start of 2026.
A deliberate snub of Xi Jinping?
Political commentator Li Linyi cautioned that, given the CCP’s black-box operations, the true reasons for these absences remain unclear. Traditionally, senior officials miss major events either due to political defeat or health issues. Multiple unexplained absences, however, are highly unusual.
Blogger Li Muyang of News Highlights noted that absences from such seminars are not unprecedented. Foreign Minister Wang Yi missed a similar event in 2022 due to diplomatic duties, while Vice Premier Sun Chunlan and NPC Vice Chairman Li Hongzhong were absent that year after contracting COVID-19. This time, He Lifeng’s Davos trip explained his absence, and Ma Xingrui’s was widely expected.
Shi Taifeng’s absence, however, was harder to explain. As head of the Organization Department—the party organ responsible for cadre management and personnel deployment—he should have been central to such a seminar.
As for Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, Li Muyang emphasized their unusually close relationship as both comrades-in-arms and superior–subordinate. Their simultaneous absence from such an important event appeared abnormal.
Li proposed two possibilities. The first: Zhang and Liu deliberately chose not to attend, openly denying Xi Jinping face.
For years, rumors have circulated that Xi’s power has been hollowed out. According to these claims, after the Third Plenum in 2024, Zhang Youxia—backed by party elders—seized control of the military. Zhang and Xi were said to have completely fallen out. Since then, numerous officials and generals associated with Xi have been purged, leading some observers to speculate that Zhang was orchestrating a cleanup of Xi’s faction. If so, a calculated snub of Xi would not be unthinkable.
Signs of Xi Jinping’s loss of power?
Commentator Tang Jingyuan offered a more cautious view. The seminar, he argued, was a routine ideological exercise for provincial- and ministerial-level cadres, not a top-tier event requiring mandatory attendance by every senior leader. A single absence, he said, is not proof of political disaster.
What matters, Tang stressed, is whether Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Shi Taifeng continue to miss key events. Their absence, he suggested, could reflect a broader unwillingness to “keep acting” in support of Xi, signaling the public manifestation of Xi’s loss of authority rather than an immediate counterattack by Xi.
Declaring that Xi had already “turned the tables” and arrested Zhang and Liu, Tang argued, would be premature.
Or has Xi struck back?
Li Muyang, however, did not rule out a second possibility: that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli had indeed fallen.
This scenario rests on two assumptions: that Xi Jinping never truly lost power, or that he has now successfully launched a counteroffensive.
Online interpretations of recent purges split into two camps. One holds that Xi personally removed his own allies to consolidate authority and intimidate rivals. The other believes Xi, having been sidelined, attempted a comeback—reportedly with the help of former CMC vice chairman Xu Qiliang—only to suffer setbacks. Xu’s subsequent mysterious death is often cited as evidence that Xi never abandoned hopes of a counterstrike, a development that would place Zhang Youxia in grave danger.
Notably, Jan. 20 was not the first time Zhang and Liu were absent together. At an expanded CMC meeting on Jan. 16, neither appeared. Only two full generals attended: Zhang Shengmin and Han Shengyan, commander of the Central Theater Command. The PLA offered no explanation.
An account known as “CEO Briefing” on X observed that, aside from Ma Xingrui, Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Organization Department head Shi Taifeng had all missed multiple high-profile meetings—an anomaly it linked directly to intensified power struggles at the top of the CCP.
Zhang Youxia’s indecision—and a grim fate?
The rumors have revived discussion of an open letter published in December by commentator “New Highland.” The letter argued that as Zhongnanhai intensified its purge of the military, all major factions had been uprooted. Zhang Youxia, portrayed as unaffiliated yet potentially capable of forcing Xi’s hand, had become Xi’s final target.
According to the letter, Zhang faced only three options: launch a real military coup, die to protect his family from collective punishment, or wait passively for secret arrest. The author urged Zhang to choose quickly.
After reports of Zhang’s possible detention emerged, “New Highland” lamented that he had warned Zhang more than a month earlier: without decisive action, only death or arrest awaited.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun echoed this view, noting that a public letter urging Zhang to overthrow Xi had effectively placed him “on the fire,” forcing his hand. Delay, Cai warned, would make a tragic ending inevitable.
“If Zhang Youxia is now taken down by Xi,” Cai wrote, “it will be the inevitable result of his own hesitation at a critical moment—his failure to step forward when history demanded it.”
