By Lu Yixin
Reports that Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, has fallen from power have drawn renewed attention to how much real command authority the PLA’s so-called “main force for attacking Taiwan” actually holds. Former National Assembly delegate Huang Pengxiao argued that the PLA’s blockade-and-invasion drills targeting Taiwan are unrealistic, saying that only the U.S. military has ever seriously examined such operations.
Huang said the U.S. studies, known as the “Causeway Plan,” were ultimately shelved. One key reason, he noted, was Taiwan’s geography. The island lacks beaches wide enough to support a large-scale amphibious landing, making any such operation exceptionally difficult.
According to Newtalk News, the CCP announced on Jan. 24 that Zhang and Liu Zhenli, chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, were under investigation for alleged “disciplinary and legal violations.” Because Zhang had played a central role in advancing the PLA’s combat-oriented training, observers have speculated that his case is closely tied to recent personnel upheavals involving Lin Xiangyang, former commander of the Eastern Theater Command. How much military power the “main force for attacking Taiwan” truly controls, and whether Zhang’s reported fall could accelerate Beijing’s use of force against Taiwan, has become the subject of debate.
Discussing the feasibility of a PLA assault on Taiwan, Huang said on a Jan. 27 episode of the online program Yasuhata Akio Newtalk that he was relaying the views of a former U.S. Seventh Fleet captain. A strait, the former officer said, is fundamentally different from the open ocean, even if it appears similar at a glance.
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The Taiwan Strait, he explained, is influenced by a branch of the Kuroshio Current flowing from south to north at considerable speed. While the southern section of the strait is relatively wide, the northern stretch from Taoyuan to Pingtan narrows abruptly, creating more turbulent seas. Sea conditions in the north are especially difficult to predict and are further complicated in winter by northeast monsoon winds blowing from north to south.
With strong currents running south to north and seasonal winds pushing in the opposite direction, maritime conditions in the Taiwan Strait are extremely harsh, Huang said. Wave heights can reach three meters. “That’s roughly the height of a standard apartment floor,” he said. “Trying to land under those conditions is pure fantasy.”
Huang added that the PLA’s amphibious landing concepts were effectively dismantled by U.S. military analysis more than three decades ago. He recalled studying logistics management in New York alongside a retired U.S. Navy lieutenant colonel. Because both had retired at the same rank, the officer shared first-hand accounts from his time serving as a Seventh Fleet captain.
With five of the seven members of the 20th Central Military Commission leadership reportedly having fallen, leaving only Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin, questions have emerged over whether the situation in the Taiwan Strait could be affected. Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo addressed those concerns on January 26.
Citing CTS News, Koo said Taiwan would continue to closely monitor the unusual developments within the CCP’s party, government, and military leadership. Given that Beijing has never renounced the use of force against Taiwan, he said the military’s priority is to integrate intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, share intelligence with partners and allies, and track indicators that could reveal Beijing’s intentions. Taiwan, he added, is also strengthening its self-defense capabilities to prepare for a range of potential scenarios.
Asked whether personnel changes within the CCP could accelerate a military move against Taiwan, Koo said no conclusion could be drawn based on the movement of any single senior official. Both military and non-military indicators must be assessed together, he said, because only a comprehensive evaluation can reflect Beijing’s possible intentions and actions.
Online reactions to reports of Zhang’s fall were sharply divided. Some commenters described the development as a purge rather than a coup, while others said internal power struggles had eclipsed governance. Several argued that loyalty, rather than competence, determines survival at the top of the CCP system, and that figures capable of restraining Xi Jinping are being removed one by one.
Commentary on a potential PLA attack on Taiwan was equally blunt. Some questioned how many PLA commanders have real combat experience, while others warned that any cross-strait landing would involve enormous casualties and unpredictable risks. Several commenters argued that amphibious operations across the Taiwan Strait would be dangerous for both sides and cautioned that Beijing’s tactics could defy conventional assumptions.
Editor’s Note:
This article is based on media reports, publicly aired commentary programs, and statements by political commentators. Allegations related to Chinese Communist Party military personnel changes and internal decision-making cannot be independently verified and are presented as claims attributed to the cited sources.
