China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Feb. 24 that it had placed 20 Japanese companies on an export control list, banning the export of dual-use items to those firms. Another 20 Japanese companies were added to an observation list.
Analysts said Beijing’s pressure on Japan has produced counterproductive results but continues nonetheless. They argue the hardline approach has strengthened policy support for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, accelerated Japanese investment withdrawal from China, and further deepened Japan-Taiwan cooperation.
China targets 40 Japanese entities
After Takaichi stated that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency,” Beijing called on her to retract the remark. When she did not, Chinese authorities introduced a series of measures.
On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce announced on its official website that, in accordance with the Export Control Law and the Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items, it had placed 20 Japanese entities, including Mitsubishi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., on an export control list. The ministry said the companies were involved in enhancing Japan’s military capabilities.
Effective immediately, Chinese exporters are prohibited from supplying dual-use items to those 20 entities. Overseas organizations and individuals are also barred from transferring or providing China-origin dual-use items to them.
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At the same time, another 20 Japanese companies, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list on the grounds that their end users and end uses of dual-use items could not be verified. Exporters may not apply for general licenses or use simplified reporting procedures when dealing with those entities. Applications for single licenses must include a risk assessment report and a written commitment that the dual-use items will not be used to enhance Japan’s military capabilities.
Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kei Sato responded at a press conference: “This is absolutely unacceptable. The Japanese government has lodged a strong protest and demanded that China withdraw the relevant measures.”
On Feb. 25, Takaichi addressed the issue during questioning in the House of Councillors. She said Japan would “strengthen cooperation with like-minded countries and promote diversification of supply sources” to build a resilient supply chain that does not depend on specific countries.
Measures seen as largely symbolic
Veteran media commentator Wang Jian said on his self-media program that the sanctions were directed at Japan’s defense-related companies. He said the restrictions amount to a political signal, noting that such firms are unlikely to rely on Chinese materials. In practice, he said, banning exports of dual-use materials to those companies has limited impact.
Wang described the move as part of what he called a new round of pressure on the Takaichi government. He cited earlier criticism from Beijing over Japanese textbooks and suggested disputes over historical issues could follow.
He said Chinese pressure has instead strengthened domestic backing for Takaichi’s agenda. “From the beginning until now, China’s pressure has been counterproductive, but China still persists,” he said, adding that higher pressure has coincided with rising support for Takaichi.
Wang also noted that under Takaichi’s leadership, the Liberal Democratic Party secured what he described as the largest electoral victory in modern history in the House of Representatives election. He said Beijing’s posture toward Japan contributed to that outcome.
Lin Hsien-shen, an adjunct professor in the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University, told overseas media that Beijing may be attempting to generate domestic resistance in Japan against the Takaichi cabinet’s defense expansion. He said that effort is unlikely to succeed, pointing to the LDP’s strong electoral performance as evidence that voters support Takaichi’s refusal to yield to what he characterized as economic coercion.
Companies reassess China risk
Akio Yaita, executive director of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Think Tank, wrote on Facebook on Feb. 25 that the move was primarily political rather than a substantive economic blow. He said repeated use of economic measures to signal political dissatisfaction has become less effective.
Yaita said more Japanese companies are reassessing the risks of operating in China and shifting production and investment to Southeast Asia, India, or back to Japan. He described “China Plus One” as a consensus in the business community and said Japan’s supply chain adjustments were already underway before the latest measures.
He added that foreign capital’s exit from China has developed gradually over time. Each export control and retaliatory action, he said, reinforces concerns about political risk in the Chinese market. The latest restrictions on Japanese firms are widely viewed as part of that pattern.
Closer coordination with Taiwan
Yaita said Beijing’s approach has given the Takaichi administration additional support for its economic security agenda. Since taking office, Takaichi has emphasized supply chain resilience and closer cooperation with democratic partners such as Taiwan and the United States. When economic pressure increases, he said, public support for de-risking also grows.
He added that rising friction between Japan and China has coincided with closer coordination between Japan and Taiwan in both security and economic areas. Semiconductor cooperation, supply chain integration, and security dialogue between the two sides have continued to expand in recent years.
Yaita said the measures were intended to pressure Tokyo, but their effects may unfold differently. Investment flows are shifting, production lines are relocating, and supply chains are being reorganized across the region.
By Li Jingyao
