Public support for the cabinet of Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has dropped precipitously in recent months amidst recent turbulence — particularly the war in Iran — according to daily polling data from research firm Green Ship.
Results from the firm’s “Public Opinion Radar” show that approval for the Takaichi cabinet has declined sharply from a peak of 79.5 percent on Jan. 2, 2026, to 56.0 percent as of March 16.
This marks a drop of 23.5 percentage points in just two and a half months. While still relatively high by historical standards, the disapproval rate has more than doubled from 15.0 percent to 35.9 percent, signaling growing voter unease.
According to Japanese election consultant and political analyst Ōhamazaki Takuma (大濱崎卓真), writing for Yahoo News, the decline can be understood in three phases, each tied to key political developments since the beginning of 2026.
January-February: Dissolution and Election Backlash (79.5% → ~66%)
The first major drop coincided with the decision to dissolve the lower house. After reports on Jan. 9 that Takaichi was considering dissolution, she formally announced the decision on Jan. 19, leading to a general election on Feb. 8.
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Public reaction was largely negative. Many voters criticized the lack of clear justification and the disruption to the fiscal 2026 budget process, as well as the timing during exam season. Polls showed declining support, with many respondents saying they did not approve of the decision.
Although the ruling party won a historic landslide victory, securing 316 seats, Ōhamazaki notes that the Takaichi cabinet’s approval ratings did not recover, remaining in the mid-60 point range.
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Support declined further following the revelation that Takaichi’s office had distributed catalog gifts worth about 30,000 yen to 315 newly elected ruling party lawmakers, totaling roughly 10 million yen.
While the prime minister stated the gifts were legally permissible, public reaction was critical, particularly amid rising living costs and recent political funding scandals. The issue reinforced concerns about money in politics and perceptions of complacency after the election victory.
March: Iran Crisis and Security Policy Concerns (~61% → 56%)
Approval ratings fell more sharply in March, dropping five points in 10 days. This decline reflects a combination of domestic and international pressures.
The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 and the resulting escalation in the Middle East have heightened concerns in Japan, particularly after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil flows and drove up energy prices.
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At the same time, public opposition has grown toward government plans to ease restrictions on exporting lethal defense equipment. Polls show a majority opposed, with even ruling party supporters divided.
These issues, combined with perceptions of post-election complacency, appear to have contributed to declining trust in the government, according to Ōhamazaki.
Taken together, the drop in approval reflects a cumulative pattern: backlash over the dissolution decision, renewed concerns over political funding, and rising anxiety over foreign policy and security.
While an approval rating of 56 percent remains relatively strong, the speed of the decline — over 20 points in roughly five months — is notable. As Takaichi prepares for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, whether she can halt this downward trend may prove critical to the future of her administration.
