The U.S.-Israeli coalition entered the Iran war in 2026 with narrow objectives. The first priority was destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons manufacturing capability. That expanded to dismantling the regime’s ability to arm and direct proxy terrorist networks across the Middle East. Then the goals grew again: crippling the dictatorship’s capacity to govern, creating conditions for the Iranian people to rise against the regime, and ultimately demanding unconditional surrender.
None of those achievements matter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The strait is the immediate test of whether Trump can claim victory. If he cannot reopen the world’s most critical energy corridor, every other military gain rings hollow. Iran understands this. The regime is blockading the strait to force Trump into ending the Iran war early, hoping to preserve its veto power over global energy flows and negotiate future immunity from consequences.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz always featured in American and Israeli war-gaming scenarios. The U.S.-Israeli coalition anticipated this move and prepared accordingly. Before Iran sealed the strait, the U.S. and Israel had already systematically degraded Iran’s air defenses, missile stockpiles, and naval forces. All of that preparation was designed to create the preconditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by force.
In an interview last weekend, Trump was asked about the political cost of rising oil prices tied to the Iran war. His answer was blunt: “I have to do the right thing. I can’t say, ‘oh gee, I don’t want to have any impact on oil for three or four weeks or two months, so we’re just going to let Iran have nuclear weapons.'”
Last Friday, the U.S. bombed military targets on Kharg Island, through which roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports flow. American forces also threatened to strike or seize the island’s oil export terminal. U.S. Marine rapid reaction forces have deployed to the area. If ordered, they could sever the oil export routes that the Iranian regime depends on for economic survival.
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The pattern is clear. Trump will not end the Iran war until the energy shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz is open. Iran attempted to use its chokehold on the strait to pressure Trump into backing down. The blockade did the opposite. It left Trump with no option except to keep fighting until the strait is clear.
Trump wants NATO, China, and Asia to share the escort burden
This week, Trump called on NATO allies, China, South Korea, and Japan to contribute forces to escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The logic is simple: anyone who profits from energy shipments through the strait should help protect the passage. Asia is the region most dependent on oil flowing through the Hormuz chokepoint, making Asian participation especially important.
Trump refrained from using tariff threats or provocative gestures to pressure allies into joining the Iran war effort. Treating allies as partners rather than adversaries was a calculated choice. It makes them far more willing to contribute when you actually need their help.
Trump has said he may dispatch the U.S. Navy to escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but the operational complexity is enormous. Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who commanded a carrier strike group, recently described what a convoy escort operation would actually require.
First, coalition forces would need to continue striking Iran’s remaining missiles, sea mines, drones, and naval vessels until the threat drops to a manageable risk level. Second, continuous surveillance would need to cover a radius of roughly one hundred miles around the convoy route. Third, four to eight aircraft would fly overhead during each escort transit, carrying advanced precision weapons and cheap rockets to counter Iran’s Shahed-series drones. Fourth, armed helicopters would stand ready to destroy any fast-attack boats that emerge from Iran’s coastline. Fifth, ten to fourteen Aegis-class destroyers would deploy, because their powerful integrated air defense systems make them the ideal convoy escort vessels for the Strait of Hormuz.
A single failure at any stage would collapse the entire operation. If anything goes wrong, commercial shipping companies will refuse to risk the passage. The stakes of execution are as high as the stakes of the Iran war itself.
When the Iran war began and the U.S.-Israeli coalition was advancing rapidly, some analysts worried Trump would declare total victory and withdraw before the job was done. The fear was that he would win the initial military campaign but abandon the longer-term strategic objectives. Israel was especially alarmed. Israeli military planners knew that many of Iran’s secondary military targets remained intact.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz eliminated that risk. By forcing the crisis to escalate, the regime made it impossible for Trump to walk away prematurely. Trump has said the military campaign will continue for four to six weeks. He has also indicated he may postpone his planned end-of-March visit to China, a clear signal that the Iran war will continue well into April. Israel will use this extended window to conduct a sustained campaign aimed at destroying the Iranian regime’s remaining military capabilities.
Iran’s leverage over global energy will shrink permanently
Iran’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate infrastructure changes that permanently reduce the regime’s energy leverage. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are already moving to build additional pipeline capacity that bypasses the strait entirely. Countries across Asia and Europe will seek alternative shipping routes and diversify their energy suppliers. The Gulf states will bear short-term costs from the disruption. The long-term effect, though, will be to diminish Iran’s ability to threaten the global energy supply ever again. The Strait of Hormuz blockade may prove to be the last time Iran can hold the world’s oil supply hostage.
Even after being nearly crippled by the U.S.-Israeli campaign, Iran still retains the ability to fight back and disrupt international shipping lanes. That fact alone reveals how dangerous the alternative scenario would have been. If Iran had kept twice or three times its current missile and drone stockpiles, if the regime had acquired nuclear weapons before this campaign began, its capacity to blackmail the international community would have been orders of magnitude greater.
War is brutal. Innocent civilians are killed. No military campaign unfolds according to plan, and the costs are severe. But inaction carries its own price. The cost of appeasement, of standing by while a dictatorship acquires nuclear weapons, would have been borne by every nation dependent on the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The international community could not have afforded that outcome.
Commentary by Dong Fang
(This article represents the author’s personal views and opinions.)
