Northeast China is China’s Rust Belt. Global Rust Belt regions all follow the same vicious cycle: economic downturn, brain drain, declining birth rates, aging population, and then further economic downturn. Detroit in the U.S., Tohoku in Japan, the mining areas of Western Europe—which of them didn’t fall from glory to oblivion? The problem is that Northeast China’s decline has been shockingly rapid. It achieved in just 40 years what other Rust Belts took over 200 years to do — truly ahead of the curve. Overseas Chinese netizens have already begun to say one thing: “Listen to the CCP, and you’ll be rushing to the crematorium.” In the past 70 years, the three northeastern provinces of China have been the most obedient to the Party. It can be said that if other provinces in China do not heed the lessons of Northeast China, then Northeast China today will be the whole of China tomorrow.
After the CCP seized power, the Northeast was the most industrialized region in China, holding a prominent political position and experiencing the strictest planned economy. However, after the “Reform and Opening Up,” the entire Northeast fell behind. This planned economy mindset comprehensively influenced the people of the region, which can be seen from the local government system and its implemented policies, to the mindset of people at all levels of society. The implementation of the CCP Central Committee policies is also the strictest here. For example, the family planning policy was very strict, resulting in the most negative consequences.
The Northeast’s economic backwardness, rampant corruption, and deplorable politics led to the downfall of many high-ranking CCP officials, starting in the Northeast. This is because it is China’s old industrial base, with numerous state-owned enterprises, rampant corruption, and a severely corrupted mindset. At the time, there was a saying in China’s investment circles: “Investment doesn’t cross the Shanhaiguan Pass,” meaning the Northeast is a very unfavorable market with an underdeveloped private economy.
Savage reforms of state-owned enterprises in 1998
In the late 1990s, the CCP implemented brutal reforms to state-owned enterprises, leading to massive worker layoffs in the region and resulting in economic collapse and severe hardship for the Northeast. In 2001, China joined the WTO, leading to a relaxation of social regulations. Many people from Northeast China went to Hainan and other parts of southern China to work, alleviating the problem of layoffs. However, the Northeast’s own economy collapsed, unable to solve the employment problem, forcing a further exodus of people from the region. This population loss and economic decline, in turn, further lowered the birth rate, creating a vicious cycle. The 2010 film The Piano in a Factory depicted this period of history.
The film tells the story of a father who lost his job and fell on hard times. Unable to afford a piano for their daughter’s wish, the father and his friends decided to build one themselves. So they are using their skilled steelmaking techniques to build the piano. The film is full of humor and sentimentality, but many viewers from Northeast China, or children from the region, shed tears while watching it.
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One viewer wrote: “As someone who grew up in an industrialized area of Northeast China, and a member of a working-class family, I cried throughout the film. Brick walls, chimneys, layoffs, factories… rusty workshops, and the desperate, almost desperate wisdom of the lower classes. The collapse of a class, a lament for the factory workers’ kids. More absurd than imagined is their humble dream.”
A key tactic of the CCP’s brainwashing is creating new terms. Unemployment in China isn’t called unemployment; it’s called “getting off the position,” which gives people hope that they might one day return to their positions or be moved to another. At the time, the CCP media also heavily promoted a song called “Starting Over.” The song goes: “Look at success and failure, life is heroic, it’s just starting over again.”
A girl viewer wrote: “I especially loved this movie, watched it once, and then again.” However, she hates the film Starting Over because many people from Northeast China never have the chance to start over in their entire lives. She recalled: “First, Mom didn’t have to work anymore. The entire production line’s machines were sold. She received a minimum living allowance of $19 and sat at home watching TV all day. Dad was also laid off soon after, looking for work everywhere, but predictably, he couldn’t find anything.”
This girl said that her friend Xiaoqin, who was the same age, had a father who later became a street thug, fighting at home and driving his wife insane. The insane woman was filthy, often scavenging for food in garbage dumps, completely unrecognizable from her former simple and pretty self. Xiaoqin later left home, and no one knows where she went.
She wrote: “There are too many stories like this around me; cruelty has become commonplace. A year’s service is worth only a few hundred yuan. People with decades of service received $2,800… The reform of state-owned enterprises affected far more than just one generation; it affected even more of these workers’ children. This difficult period of their youth will likely be a shadow they never forget.” “Many of my classmates dropped out of school and were thrown into jobs as apprentices in barbershops, selling shoes in malls, working in restaurants… becoming another kind of dispensable cog in the machine of society.”
History repeats itself thirty years later
Nearly thirty years have passed; what is Northeast China like now? On the Chinese internet, many people from Northeast China lament life’s hardships. A Douyin account user named “Harbin Leizi” shares an exchange in a video. “The average salary in Harbin in 2026 is $1,200. How much do you earn?” “My monthly salary is only $440,” his friend said. “Then you’re dragging down the average too much, buddy.”
Another account, “Lao Guan Experiment,” said, “Shenyang salaries are just around $300, at most $500. Shenyang has too many scammers and too many unfinished buildings. Shenyang has too many young people who can’t find jobs, and too many unscrupulous bosses. So what’s “the few” in Shenyang? Shenyang has few weekends off, few people paying social security, and few high-paying jobs.
Another netizen from Northeast China, residing in Shenyang, said in the video, “The most authentic scene in Shenyang. This year, when friends gather for meals, no one talks about buying houses anymore; everyone’s talking about side hustles and such… Now look at the night markets—the stalls have changed hands time and again. The most absurd thing is that those classmates who used to think getting jobs in the government sector were the ultimate winners in life are now silent when asked about their take-home pay. What are people in Shenyang relying on to survive this year? ”
The most evident population crisis in China
Because Northeast China has the highest proportion of state-owned enterprises in the country, the “one-child” family planning policy was implemented most thoroughly, leading to a particularly severe problem of low birth rate and aging population. With the disappearance and migration of a large number of people and the extremely low birth rate, Northeast China is now showing a process of civilization extinction.
The CCP has intensified its efforts to cover up various data in recent years. Therefore, we use 2024 data for Northeast China, which is likely still to contain significant inaccuracies. Public data shows that in 2024, Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China had a birth rate o f 3.35 per 1,000 people, with only three newborns per 1,000 people.
In terms of divorce rate, the province’s divorce-to-marriage ratio reached a high of 81 percent in 2024, meaning that for every 100 couples who registered for marriage, 81 couples registered for divorce. Meanwhile, Northeast China has entered a severely aging society, with over 9 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 21.9 percent of the province’s total population.
According to a report by Caixin.com, among the 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions that have disclosed their permanent resident population data, Heilongjiang’s decrease in permanent resident population was second only to Shandong Province. The other two northeastern provinces, Liaoning and Jilin, saw their permanent resident populations decrease by 270,000 and 221,000, respectively, in 2024 compared to the previous year. Within one year, the permanent resident population of the three northeastern provinces decreased by 817,000. Looking at a longer timeframe, over the past 10 years, the cumulative decrease in the permanent resident population of the three northeastern provinces has exceeded 11 million.
Northeast China has the lowest birth rate, the highest divorce rate, and an off-the-charts death rate—a silent social experiment. Chinese netizens jokingly say, “They are not having children anymore, not living anymore, not going to survive.” Some even describe the rural areas of Northeast China as “nine out of ten villages empty.” Observing Northeast China, you’ll understand that the population can naturally decline without war.
Furthermore, the pension funds of the three northeastern provinces have long been in deficit. According to the “Annual Report on the Development of Social Insurance in China 2015” released by the Chinese government, as early as 2015, the current income of the urban enterprise employee pension insurance fund in Heilongjiang was $2.7 billion less than its expenditure, while Liaoning and Jilin also had deficits of $1.55 billion and $600 million, respectively. Now, the number of retirees is increasing, while the number of working people is decreasing.
For over twenty years, the CCP has launched round after round of “Northeast Revitalization Strategies,” but the disadvantages of the Northeast have become apparent. Its GDP growth rate has almost consistently lagged behind the national average, with some areas even experiencing negative growth.
The bursting of the CCP’s real estate Ponzi scheme bubble has been a double blow to China’s Rust Belt states. Mortgage loans have become a mountain weighing on people’s heads. At the same time, the unemployment crisis looms large. A woman from Dalian said in a Douyin video that a friend’s husband had worked at the Dalian Water Supply Company for many years but was laid off this year without warning. Another friend’s husband worked at a shipyard and was also laid off at the end of May this year.
This blogger said that one of her clients worked at the Dalian Public Transport Group and that for the past two years, he hasn’t received full payment. Finally, at the end of the year, they were told he would receive a small payment, but in the end, he only received $100. People in Northeast China still hold onto the outdated belief that getting a job in a state-owned enterprise is like having an “iron rice bowl,” a secure job until retirement.
This time, they realize that the era of so-called state-owned enterprise reform 28 years ago has returned.
Because of its devastating population decline, the Northeast’s economy is rapidly sliding towards collapse. The nationwide crisis of extremely low birth rates is, now in fact, kind of similar to the Northeast’s situation, and other regions of China have social systems virtually identical to the Northeast’s. The Northeast, simply due to its high proportion of state-owned enterprises and more stringent family planning policies, has unfortunately become a harbinger of collapse. If the CCP’s political landscape continues its leftward shift, and other parts of the country follow suit, then they will not escape this fate. It serves as a warning to other provinces: maintain distance from the Party Central Committee. Otherwise, the Northeast’s present will be the future of all of China.
