According to the latest population data released by Chinese authorities for 2025, 24 of China’s provincial-level regions recorded a decline in their resident population. Of China’s 31 provincial-level regions, only seven continued to post population growth. Reports say the trend is likely to have wide-ranging effects across multiple sectors.
According to a report by Sina Finance, 24 of China’s 31 provincial-level regions experienced negative growth in their resident population in 2025. Only Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Hainan, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region maintained positive population growth.
The outlook is even less encouraging when focusing on China’s 10 most populous provincial-level regions, which are: Guangdong, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hebei, Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Hubei.
Among these 10 provinces, only Guangdong and Zhejiang continued to record population growth, while the other eight experienced population declines.
Notably, Shandong, China’s second-largest provincial economy, has not been immune to the trend. Over the past three years, Shandong’s resident population has declined by more than 1.2 million, leaving it on the verge of falling below the 100 million mark.
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Meanwhile, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shaanxi, and Tianjin all shifted to negative population growth. In contrast, Shanghai returned to positive growth, largely due to an influx of migrants.
For Jiangsu, this marks the first population decline since the 1960s. Although migrants continue to move into the province, their numbers have not been sufficient to offset the natural population decline.
Unexpected findings
Some of the findings are particularly unexpected. The provinces with the largest population losses were Henan, Anhui, Sichuan, and Hunan—each of which lost more than 400,000 residents—rather than China’s three northeastern provinces, which have long been associated with demographic decline.
Even more surprising, the steepest decline was not recorded in populous provinces such as Shandong or Henan, but in Hunan, whose population fell by 470,000 last year—roughly equivalent to the population of an average county-level city. Of that decline, 287,000 resulted from natural population decrease (more deaths than births), while 183,000 was due to net out-migration.
Although many provinces are experiencing population decline, the underlying causes are not identical. The data indicates that they all share a common challenge: falling birth rates. As fertility continues to decline, the number of births has dropped below the number of deaths, resulting in negative natural population growth. The situation is further complicated by continued population migration.
Provinces including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hunan, Sichuan, Anhui, Henan, and Jiangxi are facing a double demographic challenge: negative natural population growth combined with net population outflows.
Some other provinces continue to record net in-migration, but even these inflows are insufficient to offset the effects of sharply declining birth rates and natural population decline.
Jiangsu is cited as a typical example. Last year, the province recorded a net inflow of 220,000 migrants, but its natural population decreased by 307,000. As a result, despite attracting new residents, its total population still declined by 80,000.
By contrast, Guangdong was the only province to achieve growth in both natural population increase and net migration. Its resident population grew by 790,000 last year, including 290,000 from natural population growth and 500,000 from net migration, giving it a solid growth trajectory.
In addition, population decline is expected to have several major consequences for China’s provinces:
First, competition for people will shift from competing for population growth to competing for an existing—and shrinking—population. Instead of a situation in which growth benefits everyone, it will increasingly become a negative-sum game, intensifying competition among regions to attract residents.
In the past, local governments primarily competed to attract highly educated talent. Now, the article argues, virtually any working-age resident has become a valuable resource.
Second, as more regions experience both natural population decline and net out-migration, the number of shrinking cities is expected to increase.
Previously, when China’s overall population was still expanding, even regions experiencing heavy out-migration—such as the northeastern provinces—could partially offset those losses through natural population growth. Now, most prefecture-level cities are likely to face sustained population decline, making shrinking cities no longer a phenomenon unique to Northeast China.
Third, real estate ultimately depends on population trends. As the long-term foundation of housing demand, demographic changes are expected to have a profound impact on property prices.
Far-reaching consequences
An article published by the website Population Research (人口研究) further argues that negative population growth will affect multiple areas:
Economy and labor market
As the working-age population continues to shrink, businesses are increasingly facing difficulties recruiting workers, while labor costs continue to rise.
The article argues that industries which previously benefited from China’s demographic dividend—particularly labor-intensive manufacturing—are losing their competitive advantage, placing downward pressure on economic growth. As a result, it says, industries will be compelled to accelerate upgrading, shifting from reliance on a “demographic dividend”to technological innovation and a “talent dividend,” including the large-scale adoption of automation and robotics to replace human labor.
Social welfare and public finance
As the proportion of elderly people continues to increase, China’s social security funds and healthcare system are expected to face growing financial pressure in maintaining long-term fiscal balance.
In addition, a shrinking and aging population will reduce underlying housing demand, with long-term implications for the real estate market and for the finances of local governments that rely heavily on land- and property-related revenue.
Industrial opportunities and structural adjustment
At the same time, as China moves toward an aging society and eventually a super-aged society, industries serving older adults—including healthcare, wellness, age-friendly products, and leisure services—are likely to experience rapid growth.
Conversely, the continuing decline in births is expected to put increasing pressure on kindergartens, pediatric healthcare providers, and businesses serving mothers and children, forcing many to downsize or transform their operations.
As China’s population declines, kindergarten closures have become increasingly common across the country.
An article by Tushushi (图数室), a data journalism outlet under Sina News, reported that China is losing two kindergartens every hour.
According to the 2024 National Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Education, China had 253,300 kindergartens in 2024, down from 274,400 in 2023—a year-on-year decrease of 21,100. That translates to approximately two kindergartens closing every hour.
The article also notes that China’s birth rate has declined steadily over the past decade, falling from 13.27 percent (per 1,000 people) in 2011 to 6.39 percent in 2023—a drop of more than half. The decline accelerated after 2018, and by 2022, the birth rate had fallen below the death rate, resulting in negative natural population growth.
China’s prolonged economic slowdown, rising unemployment, and widespread salary cuts and layoffs have made it increasingly difficult for many people to afford marriage and childrearing, contributing to a sharp decline in the number of newborns.
The article argues that as the population continues to shrink, kindergartens across the country are struggling to enroll enough children, forcing many to close. It further contends that the demographic decline is having ripple effects across a wide range of industries.
