Ben Cook, a NASA climate scientist from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, talks about how scientists used tree rings to understand past droughts and climate models incorporating soil moisture data to estimate future drought risk in the 21st century.
NASA predicts that by the end of the 21st century, the Southwest and Great Plains will likely experience longer and more severe droughts than at any time in the past thousand years. Current droughts, and events like the dust bowl, last from several years up to a decade, but these new droughts linked to climate change will last 20, 30, or even 40 years.
These climate change-induced droughts will last even longer than past historical megadroughts.
It seems we have reached a point where no matter what we do now, more severe droughts will happen. But if emissions are substantially reduced, the severity of such droughts will be mitigated. If nations continue with business as usual, the impact of such droughts will be very severe.
This video is about North American drought projections based on different emission levels:
If you are interested in climate change and how there models work, this is worth watching.