Starting Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran has triggered retaliatory strikes by Tehran across the region and raised fears of a longer conflict, possibly involving the deployment of American ground forces.
In an eight-minute video released on social media, U.S. President Donald Trump said the operation aimed to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” He also called on Iranians to “take over your government.”
The over 1,000 airstrikes marked the most direct military confrontation between Washington and Tehran in decades. Within days, the conflict expanded beyond Iran’s borders, with attacks on military bases, diplomatic missions and energy infrastructure across the Middle East.
The war broke out as Washington was in inconclusive negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program. In addition, since late last December, mass protests against the Islamic clerical leadership have led to violent reprisals by the country’s security forces,leaving tens of thousands dead.
For decades, tensions between Iran and Israel have simmered across the Middle East, driven by Tehran’s support for armed groups hostile to Israel, including Hezbollah and Hamas, and Israel’s long-standing campaign to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The rivalry has frequently played out through proxy conflicts, covert operations and periodic Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets, while Iran has expanded its missile and drone capabilities and deepened its regional presence.
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Various reports, such as press statements by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, indicated that the U.S. strikes came following forewarning by Israel, an influential ally, that it would be imminently launching its own attacks on Iran.
Leadership decapitation strikes
On March 1, Iranian state media confirmed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed during an Israeli airstrike on a compound in Tehran. Khamenei, who was 86 and suffering from cancer at the time of his death, is survived by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Several members of the Khamenei family were also reported killed. Israeli and U.S. officials said more than 40 senior Iranian commanders and officials died in the strikes.
The younger Khameinei is a hardline cleric with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which wields great influence over the country of 90 million. According to Iranian government sources who spoke with Reuters, he is likely to be chosen as the next Ayatollah.
Among those confirmed dead were defense council secretary Ali Shamkhani, armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Pakpour.
Iranian authorities announced that a three-person leadership council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and a jurist from the Guardian Council would temporarily assume the country’s top leadership functions.
Iran quickly retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria and Gulf states, as well as Israeli territory and allied facilities. Iranian strikes hit airports, military installations and energy infrastructure across the region.
War spreads as missiles strike across the region
Fighting intensified further on March 2 as Israel struck Hezbollah positions in Beirut and Iran expanded its retaliation to Gulf energy facilities and U.S. diplomatic missions.
Casualties mounted quickly. Iranian state media reported more than 550 civilian deaths, including more than 100 children killed at a girls’ elementary school near a military base. The United States said six American service members had been killed. In one rather striking event, an Iranian drone was caught on video scoring a hit on a U.S. radar complex, demonstrating the vulnerability of expensive equipment in the face of modern weaponry.
Iran has suffered over 1,000 military deaths since the outbreak of hostilities. Last June, the 12-day aerial conflict between Iran and Israel resulted in a similar number of casualties for Tehran.
Iranian military officials also moved to threaten global energy routes. A senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments — was closed and warned that Iranian naval forces would fire on vessels attempting to pass.
The U.S. military said it had already struck more than 1,250 targets in Iran during the opening phase of the campaign. U.S. Central Command also reported destroying 11 Iranian vessels.
Speaking at the White House on March 2, Trump outlined four core war objectives: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, annihilating its navy, preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and degrading its support for militant proxies.
The president said the administration initially expected the campaign to last “four to five weeks” but added that the United States had the capability to continue much longer. In comments made to the New York Post, Trump also did not rule out deploying U.S. ground forces to Iran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran currently produces more than 100 missiles a month, compared with about six to seven U.S. ballistic-missile interceptors produced monthly.
On March 4, the conflict expanded to the Indian Ocean when a U.S. nuclear submarine sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Iranian civilian casualties had risen to roughly 1,045, according to Iranian state media.
How Beijing could be watching the Middle East conflict
The People’s Republic of China (PRC), a long-time backer of Iran, has responded cautiously to the outbreak of war.
During a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on March 1, PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the use of force and said it was “unacceptable” for the United States and Israel to strike Iran while nuclear negotiations were ongoing.
Wang urged an “immediate cessation of military operations” and called for a return to diplomacy, warning against a “regression to the law of the jungle.”
A day later, he told Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi that China supports Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Despite those statements, Beijing has avoided stronger measures or explicit condemnation of Washington or Israel.
According to SinoInsider, a New York-based consultancy specializing in elite Chinese politics, China’s response reflects a cautious “wait-and-see” approach as the war unfolds.
“Beijing has strategic ties with Tehran but no formal security guarantees,” SinoInsider noted, adding that China’s leadership is balancing its relationship with Iran against broader regional interests and ties with the United States and Gulf states.
Energy risks and strategic calculations
The conflict also carries certain economic implications for China, which is one of Iran’s largest oil customers.
Iranian crude accounted for roughly 11–14 percent of China’s seaborne oil imports in recent years, with much of it purchased by independent refineries in Shandong province known as “teapots,” according to SinoInsider.
However, the consultancy said Beijing is unlikely to face an immediate energy crisis even if supply disruptions occur. China has large crude reserves in storage and had already begun reducing imports from Iran earlier this year.
Instead, Beijing may increase reliance on Russian oil if instability spreads across the Persian Gulf or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes more difficult.
At the same time, rising global energy prices could weigh on China’s slowing economy and further squeeze the independent refiners that rely heavily on discounted crude from sanctioned suppliers.
Political ripple effects
The war has also reverberated inside China’s online discourse.
Chinese social media users have mocked several prominent nationalist commentators who previously argued that Washington would never attack Iran because of the risks of retaliation and economic fallout.
Such reactions represent an embarrassing moment for some nationalist commentators who had framed the United States as unwilling to launch a large-scale conflict.
Beijing’s leadership is likely watching developments closely, particularly the possibility of internal political upheaval in Iran following the killing of its long-time supreme leader.
For now, however, China appears determined to keep its response limited to diplomatic messaging while monitoring how the conflict evolves — a strategy reflecting both uncertainty about the war’s outcome and Beijing’s broader effort to avoid being drawn directly into another Middle Eastern crisis.
