A senior figure in an exiled Iranian dissident group said Thursday, March 12 that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is unlikely to bring down the country’s clerical leadership, arguing that only a popular uprising supported by internal resistance could topple the regime.
Speaking at a press conference in Paris, Mohammad Mohaddesin, head of foreign policy for the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said nearly two weeks of airstrikes had demonstrated the limits of military pressure. “The 12-day war in June, and the current war, now in its 12th day, proved that bombings cannot overthrow the regime,” Mohaddesin said.
According to information cited by Reuters, roughly 2,000 people have been killed in Iran since the conflict began, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The strikes have also damaged parts of Iran’s military and security infrastructure.
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Iran has responded with attacks of its own, contributing to disruption in regional transport routes and volatility in global energy markets. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated its grip on power and warned it will suppress any domestic unrest.
Mohaddesin said regime change would require mass participation from inside Iran. “Even if you have 50,000 armed soldiers on the ground, you need the support of Iranian people. You need a popular uprising,” he said, adding that only the combination of internal resistance and broad public mobilization could bring down the government.
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He also said a deployment of U.S. ground forces was unlikely.
The NCRI, also known by the Farsi name Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), was founded in 1981 and listed by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization until 2012. The group, which hopes to establish a democratic provisional government, is banned in Iran, and analysts say its level of support inside the country is unclear. Along with monarchist supporters of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former shah, it remains one of the few organized opposition movements operating from abroad.
Mohaddesin acknowledged the NCRI could not overthrow the government alone but predicted that protests could resume once the bombing ends and could eventually lead to the downfall of the Islamic theocratic regime. Demonstrations earlier this year were eventually suppressed by Iranian authorities.
Israeli officials have said weakening Iran’s security apparatus could create conditions for Iranians to “take control of their own destiny,” according to comments reported by Reuters.
