Hoover Fellow at Stanford University Eyck Freymann has recently said in an analysis that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could restrict ships and flights entering and leaving Taiwan through maritime and air customs inspections, thereby reshaping regional and global economic dynamics without resorting to direct warfare.
In an article published by the media, Foreign Affairs on April 29 titled “The Real Threat to Taiwan: America Is Preparing for the Wrong Kind of Crisis,” Freymann, who’s also a non-resident research fellow at the U.S. Naval War College, and Director of Indo-Pacific at Greenmantle, said the United States must work with allies in advance to develop plans to avoid a “gray zone” crisis.
Freymann has outlined a simulated scenario in the article: one morning, dozens of Chinese coast guard vessels conduct “routine customs inspections” on merchant ships approaching Taiwan’s major ports, while Chinese civil aviation authorities require flights entering and leaving Taiwan to submit cargo and passenger manifests. Beijing would frame this as simply enforcing Chinese customs laws, asserting its authority to regulate the movement of people and goods entering and leaving what it calls “Taiwan Province.”
Under such circumstances, international aviation and shipping operators, considering the risks, might quickly choose to comply with China’s demands. Private companies would be reluctant to face the possibility of ships or cargo planes being detained or worse consequences, and insurance companies might refuse to cover non-compliant activities. The result could be that all flights and cargo ships entering or leaving Taiwan would have to reroute through ports in the mainland province of Fujian before proceeding to their next destinations — effectively allowing Beijing to control most of Taiwan’s external connections.
Freymann noted that mainland Chinese diplomats might emphasize that this is “not a blockade” and that there is no intention to cut off supplies to Taiwan. As long as Chinese laws are followed, people and goods could continue to move freely in and out. However, he also pointed out that weapons, dual-use components that could be assembled into military equipment, U.S. military advisors, and members of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, whom Beijing considers “separatists,” might face difficulty obtaining entry and exit permits. Engineers from TSMC and their families could also be placed on restricted lists.
Strategic threat for the US
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According to the report, under such a scenario the United States would face a strategic dilemma. Freymann believes that although such actions by the Chinese Communist Party would heighten tensions, they would not directly sever supply chains, making them difficult to define as traditional military aggression. Taiwan’s key export products—including GPU chips that support artificial intelligence development—could still continue to be exported to the United States.
Freymann warned that if Washington accepts this as a new normal, it would amount to a defeat. Once Taiwan lacks defensive equipment, it would quickly lose its leverage to counter threats from the Chinese Communist Party. At that point, the United States would no longer be able to trust that Beijing would allow Taiwan to continue exporting artificial intelligence chips over the long term.
Freymann noted that, in theory, the United States could destroy or disable TSMC to prevent China from obtaining advanced technology. However, this would severely impact financial markets; unless Washington is willing to accept major economic shocks affecting both itself and the global economy, China could ultimately gain artificial intelligence production capacity.
Freymann stated that if this model were expanded, countries such as Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea could face similar coercion. By pressuring civilian shipping and aviation operators, the Chinese Communist Party could turn the economic system into a strategic tool, enabling it to counter the United States without launching a war and thereby reshape the regional and global economic order.
He argued that while U.S. policymakers have invested heavily in preparing for a large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, a “quarantine”-style isolation under gray-zone tactics is the most likely approach, and the United States currently lacks an integrated strategy to manage such a crisis.
Demonstrate preparedness
Freymann suggested that the United States must not only prevent war but also deter the emergence of such a crisis involving Taiwan by demonstrating preparedness to handle the political and economic shocks that could arise. He emphasized the importance of coordinating plans with allies in advance.
Analysts believe that China may prefer to use “isolation” as a first step because it is more covert and can serve as a model for pressuring the region. If it can demonstrate that the United States is unable to respond effectively, it could cause long-term damage to America’s network of regional allies.
However, advancing such isolation is not without risks. As pressure escalates, allied nations would face decisions about whether to increase troop deployments, evacuate their citizens, or strengthen engagement with Taiwan—actions that could either force China to back down or trigger further escalation. If Washington appears unprepared, it could further embolden China’s pressure tactics.
In a gray-zone crisis, Western countries may face the dilemma of whether to evacuate their citizens. Washington would simultaneously have to balance competing objectives: protecting its citizens, reassuring Taiwan, stabilizing markets, and warning Beijing. Evacuation could trigger panic and miscalculation, while not evacuating would leave foreign nationals exposed to risk.
Freymann recommended that the United States develop an integrated strategy, including deterrence measures such as “avalanche-style decoupling,” to counter gray-zone crises and directly influence decision-making by Xi Jinping—making clear that a Taiwan Strait conflict would carry comprehensive political, economic, and strategic costs.
He concluded that long-term peace remains possible, but only if all parties prepare for this type of crisis, not just for scenarios involving outright war.
By Li Jingyao, Vision Times
