Recently, China–Japan relations have become tense, with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) attempting to use economic threats to intimidate Japan in response to statements by its new prime minister that her country might come to Taiwan’s aid if Beijing attacked it.
Millions of Chinese visit Japan each year, forming about a third of Japan’s toruism revenue. Chinese state media reported that 500,000 plane tickets to Japan had been canceled. However, airline staff in Shanghai and Shenzhen revealed that flights were operating as scheduled, with seats nearly full. Photos posted online also showed Japanese flights at full capacity.
On Nov. 14, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, during a parliamentary session, mentioned that a “Taiwan contingency” — that is, an invasion by Communist China — could threaten Japan’s survival amd nec. This angered Beijing, which not only criticized her but also claimed that Japan was unsafe and urged Chinese citizens to avoid traveling there.
Taiwan, an independently governed island about 100 miles off the mainland Chinese coast, is claimed by the CCP as part of its sovereign territory, to be “reunified” under communist rule at all costs.
According to the South China Morning Post, independent aviation analyst Li Hanming said that after the Chinese government issued the travel warning, 491,000 tickets from China to Japan had been canceled, 70 percent of which were round-trip tickets, accounting for about 32 percent of total Japan-bound bookings. Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines announced that tickets booked before Dec. 31 could be refunded or changed free of charge.
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Li Hanming noted that the biggest impact was not on Japanese airlines but on Chinese carriers dominating the China–Japan market. Since the five major China–Japan routes are operated by Chinese airlines, the financial loss from cancellations falls mainly on China, estimated at billions of RMB.
However, Xiao Ting (alias), a staff member at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, told The Epoch Times on Nov. 19 that Japan-bound flights have long-standing demand, and bookings generally exceed actual demand. Many cancellations are merely adjustments on the booking side, and flights continue as scheduled.
She said: “Flights that were full before are now nearly full. Although some tickets are canceled, the seats are quickly taken by other passengers. Our company’s ticket revenue hasn’t seen any noticeable change.”
Ms. Zhou, a staff member at Shenzhen Overseas Chinese City International Travel Agency, noted that in the past few days, some passengers canceled online bookings for flights to Osaka, Japan, but the situation was minor. “Cancellations are still a minority. Even when tickets are canceled, seats are quickly filled. Flights are maintaining their schedules. I haven’t heard of any tour cancellations due to boycotting Japan.”
Tian Li (alias), a flight attendant supervisor at a certain airline, told reporters that although it is currently the low season for travel to Japan, many passengers still fly from Guangzhou to Tokyo and Osaka. Even if some cancel, flights are unaffected. She added that Japan-bound routes consistently have high demand, so cancellations are natural adjustments. She dismissed reports of 500,000 tickets being canceled as exaggerated, saying: “I don’t believe it. Relations with Japan aren’t that affected. Passengers cancel tickets all the time. Don’t believe these reports.”
Photos shared online of Japanese flights show fully occupied cabins with no empty seats. One passenger joked that he thought he was the only one traveling, but the plane was fully packed: “They’re all naughty kids,” he said.
On Nov. 15 at 10 a.m., Asahi Shimbun reporters at Shanghai Pudong Airport saw long lines at the Osaka flight counters. Passengers holding Chinese passports were dragging suitcases, with the scene full of laughter and chatter.
When asked about the government warning, many passengers acknowledged it but said they were uninterested in politics or that it did not concern them. A young couple traveling with a child said they were aware of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ advice but had no intention of changing their plans. Asked if they were worried about political risks, they simply said: “We don’t care about politics.”
As of Nov. 19, flights from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen to Japan are still operating normally, and Japan has not announced any reductions in China–Japan routes.
Scholar Zhang Chen noted that the Chinese government issues such advisories during politically tense periods to shape foreign policy positions through administrative directives. However, such warnings have little effect in society. Most people are capable of independent risk assessment, and official signals do not necessarily alter personal plans. The absence of mass flight cancellations or tour withdrawals indicates the limited effectiveness of China’s administrative persuasion.
Beijing tries to pressure Japan through travel restrictions
Taiwan-based Japanese journalist Akio Yaita posted on X on Nov. 15 that the CCP, incensed by Takaichi’s remarks about Taiwan,
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a sudden late-night announcement urging citizens to avoid Japan, claiming “Chinese nationals in Japan are at risk.” He said this is entirely baseless. Chinese tourists continue to visit Japan in large numbers and generally have excellent experiences, with almost no reports of safety issues.
In contrast, Japanese people in China are increasingly anxious. Last year, a Japanese boy was murdered in southern China, and this year multiple incidents of Japanese people being attacked by Chinese citizens occurred.
Yaita stated that Beijing’s actions are not for citizen protection but are overtly political. On the same day, China’s three major state airlines—Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern—announced free ticket refunds or rescheduling for Japan-bound flights. This is not a business decision but political compliance. Its aim is clear: to reduce travel to Japan, disrupt Japan’s tourism industry, and pressure Takaichi’s administration.
He said: “In 2024, about 6.9 million Chinese tourists visited Japan, making them an important source of tourism. Beijing knows this and chose to use travel restrictions as a weapon to influence Japan’s local economy, hoping anti-Takaichi factions in the [ruling] Liberal Democratic Party can gain momentum to try to force her out of office.”
“However, Beijing likely underestimates Japanese public opinion and Prime Minister Takaichi’s political resilience. The Takaichi Cabinet’s approval rating remains above 70 percent, an unusually strong administration. Japanese citizens clearly see that China’s move is not about safety but a blatant economic interference in Japan’s domestic affairs. In the short term, it will not significantly impact Takaichi’s government.”
“But if China continues to escalate pressure and extends it to other areas, Japan’s political environment may face turbulence. The LDP currently holds a slim majority and must accelerate reforms to show results to citizens in order to remain stable in long-term confrontations.”
“At this critical moment, Taiwan should show support. Taiwan and Japan share closely linked interests. Facing Chinese pressure and threats, democracies must support each other. If Taiwanese citizens have the time and means, they should also travel to Japan to support its local economy and give Japan the confidence to resist Chinese pressure. We hope Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi can withstand the pressure.”
By Cai Siyun.
