The number of Chinese military aircraft disturbing Taiwan has recently decreased. The Taiwan Security Society assessed today that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s purge of high-ranking PLA officers, combined with the U.S. CIA releasing recruitment videos targeting PLA personnel, has created a dual effect. With absolute safety not guaranteed and China holding its annual Two Sessions (Lianghui), to prevent possible mistakes and to stop pilots from defecting, the PLA has suspended flight missions near Taiwan.
The Taiwan Security Society held a “15th Five-Year Series Forum” this morning on “China’s Defense Budget and Military Spending,” chaired by Chairman Yang Tai-yuan. Invited speakers included National Taiwan University Political Science Associate Professor Chen Shih-min and Taiwan Strategic Studies Society researcher Zeng Yin-liang.
Chen Shih-min pointed out that although the growth rate of China’s military spending has slowed, the total remains far higher than Taiwan and other neighboring countries, making it a root of the East Asian arms race. China’s announced seven percent growth in defense spending this year is the slowest since 2022. If the seven percent growth figure is credible, it would not be enough to wage a war against Taiwan. However, the credibility of China’s official military budget has long been debated internationally, and there is no confirmed figure; it is generally believed that China’s actual military spending exceeds official numbers.
Yang Tai-yuan analyzed that China conducted two military exercises targeting Taiwan in 2025, both medium-scale joint exercises costing between RMB 500 million and 700 million each. The PLA is limited by training and maintenance funds and cannot continuously conduct encirclement exercises around Taiwan’s air and sea space. Non-planned exercises are only launched in response to important speeches or policies by the President of the Republic of China. Therefore, this year, it is assessed that there will be 2 to 3 unplanned exercises targeting Taiwan.
Yang further noted that due to China’s domestic economic slowdown, the PLA may not be able to fully invade Taiwan in the short term. However, it may continue “joint readiness patrols,” gray-zone harassment, encirclement exercises, legal warfare, and cognitive operations targeting Taiwan.
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The Taiwan Security Society observed that Chinese military aircraft have recently been absent around Taiwan for consecutive days. If the goal were to ease tensions, the number of Chinese warships should also decrease. However, Chinese warships still appear daily in Taiwan’s surrounding waters, maintaining a consistent presence of six ships. This shows that the claim of “showing goodwill” cannot explain the situation.
The Society analyzed that Xi Jinping appointed Zhang Shengmin to the Central Military Commission as Vice Chairman and purged high-ranking PLA officers including Zhang Youxia. Zhang Youxia’s fall inevitably affects morale. Coupled with the CIA releasing videos in February to recruit PLA officers and gather intelligence, the Society believes there may be internal dissatisfaction within the PLA regarding the power expansion of the Military Commission and security systems. As a result, the Military Commission system must remain vigilant, strengthen surveillance of personnel, and prioritize preventing defections to ensure political security.
The Taiwan Security Society concluded that, with absolute safety not guaranteed and the Two Sessions underway, halting any action that could go wrong is the only way to ensure absolute security. The possibility of pilot defections is higher than that of warship defections, as pilots can individually decide to defect, whereas warships have hundreds of crew members, including the captain and political commissar, making defection impossible. Maintaining a fixed number of warships near Taiwan is equivalent to establishing an air defense network capable of intercepting airborne targets, including PLA aircraft.
