The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire reached two hours before President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz on April 7 (Tuesday) evening. Both countries’ leadership claimed victory amidst what the experts described as a changing global order.
“This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”
Tuesday’s ceasefire, a narrow window for diplomacy was brokered by Pakistan and Trump acknowledged Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and its military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir in his message. Sharif later announced in a message on X that he has invited American and Iranian delegations to meet in Islamabad on Friday, April 10, in the second phase of a two-stage facilitation process.
The ceasefire decision came after two-weeks of high-level deliberations mediated by Pakistan, as reported by Tehran Times, an Iranian state-controlled English daily. It happened amidst, what the report described as, “a climate of profound distrust” and consisted of a 10-point plan that Iran had submitted to end the war.
The Trump administration likewise acknowledged that he had agreed to negotiate on the basis of Iran’s 10-point proposal.
Who won?
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Both Washington and Tehran claimed victory as Trump announced the ceasefire, pausing a conflict that heightened a global economic and oil crisis. However experts said a state of confusion and concern will persist in the region as much remains unclear.
“We really do not know what the temporary ceasefire agreement holds as the American and Iranian versions may be different. Israel may or may not be onboard. GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states may or may not be in the loop to properly assess what their next steps should be,” Dr. Joseph A. Kéchichian, a Senior Fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, told Vision Times in an email shortly after the ceasefire was announced.
What’s clear is that during the ceasefire Iran’s IRGC will provide and control the navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi.
Kulbir Krishan, former member of India’s National Security Advisory Board, told Vision Times over the phone that the main aim of the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran was regime change, but this objective was not met.
“That hasn’t happened!” he said. “After the ceasefire was announced, the biggest winner turned out to be Pakistan because it could win Iranian, Chinese, and U.S. trust to broker the ceasefire. It has a long border with Iran and it has played its cards very well.”
Iran’s 10-point plan would hand the regime a number of concessions regarding control of the Hormuz Strait, uranium enrichment, and other issues.
As the world watches how Friday’s talks unfold, experts said the U.S. accepting Iran’s plan could have implications beyond Washington accepting peace on Iran’s terms.
“Trump’s acceptance of Iran’s 10 points is a total defeat for the U.S,” Hamid Bahrami, an independent geopolitical analyst of Iranian origin based in Europe, told Vision Times.
He however added that “as far as I understand Trump’s character, he never accepted such a big defeat. I think the US is seeking to re-boost its capacity to restart war even before the end of these 14 days.”
Bahrami expressed skepticism about the ceasefire, given that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that the two-week ceasefire doesn’t include Lebanon, which the Jewish State is involved in ongoing ground operations.
The ceasefire would hold more weight, Bahrami said, if Israel ceases its attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah forces. However, along with its airstrikes against Iran, Israel has been carrying out an intense military campaign in southern Lebanon since early March.
According to Bahrami, another issue weakening the agreement is the lack of a transit fee imposed by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz from the beginning of the ceasefire period itself.
“Otherwise, Iran would be giving up tangible assets (opening the Strait of Hormuz) up front while chasing deferred gains—and in the end, it would likely be forced to resume its defense from the position of a deceived actor,” he said.
Changing order in the Middle East
The U.S.-Israeli campaign that began on Feb. 28 and resulted in Iranian strikes on several assets of the neighbouring Gulf nations has done much to reset the geopolitical order in the Middle East, and will have long-term global repercussions, according to experts.
“While few weigh the long-term consequences of war in the heat of battle, there are inevitably losers, both among victims and witnesses. Middle Eastern countries, including conservative Arab Gulf monarchies, stand to lose their economic and defense models unless they quickly redraft existing strategies,” Dr. Kéchichian said.
Several Gulf nations in official statements have welcomed the truce and have called for a permanent end to the war. However, on April 8 (Wednesday) hours after the declaration of the ceasefire, many of them also reported of continued attacks from Iran, reported Al Jazeera.
Krishan said a lot depends upon if a permanent agreement is achieved because they determine the stakes of different parties.
“If a permanent agreement is achieved, the biggest winner will be Iran. Israel is a loser because the same regime will continue. It’ll thus play pragmatically. If the biggest winner is Iran, China will also win big,” he said while adding that if this happens Iran or Shia Islam will dominate the Muslim world and the Gulf nations will have to live under its shadow.
However early during U.S. hours on Wednesday, President Trump wrote on his Truth Social about a purported regime change in Iran, saying, “The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime change!”
Bahrami believes Trump’s latest statement comes from him understanding that accepting Iran’s 10-point plan will be a total defeat for the US.
“By such a defeat he won’t be able to finish his term. He gambled and was still gambling. I am also skeptical because the Israeli lobby and influence in the Trump administration indeed control his [Middle East] policy,” he said.
