By Li Jingyao, Vision Times
The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted global energy supplies, even as key shipping routes remain operational. According to shipping-tracking agency Kpler, more than 20 vessels safely transited the Strait of Hormuz on April 18, including a very large crude carrier (VLCC), the Jun Shan, which is transporting approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil to Taiwan’s Mailiao Port, Reuters reported.
Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Kuo Jyh-huei, estimates that these 2 million barrels of crude oil could supply Taiwan for about half a month.
RELATED: Japan Lifts Arms Export Restrictions in Major Post-WWII Policy Shift
2 million barrels of crude oil heading to Mailiao Port, Taiwan
According to a report by SET News, the Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and is critical to global energy transportation. The U.S.–Iran conflict has already caused international oil prices to surge. On April 19, the United States and Iran accused each other of violating a weekend ceasefire and attacking vessels, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once again.
Success
You are now signed up for our newsletter
Success
Check your email to complete sign up
Reuters reported that more than 20 ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 18. The Liberia-flagged very large crude carrier (VLCC) “Jun Shan” is carrying approximately 2 million barrels of Saudi Arabian crude oil.
RELATED: US Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Cuts Iran Oil Flow, Raises Pressure on China’s Energy Supply
According to ship-tracking websites MarineTraffic and VesselFinder, the tanker is 333 meters long and 60.04 meters wide and belongs to the fleet of Formosa Plastics Marine Corporation (FPMC). The vessel has now exited the Strait of Hormuz and is heading toward Mailiao Port in Taiwan, with an estimated arrival date of May 6.
Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Kuo Jyh-huei, stated at the Legislative Yuan on the 9th that Taiwan consumes an average of about 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day. If the shipment arrives smoothly, the 2 million barrels would be enough to cover roughly half a month of demand.
The Panama-flagged tanker Crave is carrying liquefied petroleum gas from the United Arab Emirates to Indonesia. Two other tankers, Akti A and Athina, are transporting refined petroleum products loaded in Bahrain to Mozambique and Thailand, respectively. The Liberia-flagged tanker Navig8 Macallister is carrying about 500,000 barrels of UAE naphtha to Ulsan, South Korea.
The India-flagged vessel Desh Garima is transporting approximately 780,000 barrels of crude oil from Das Island in the UAE to Sri Lanka. The vessel Ruby is carrying fertilizer from Qatar to the UAE, while the tanker Merry M is transporting petroleum coke from Saudi Arabia to Ravenna, Italy.
In addition, five vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were carrying Iranian cargo, including petroleum products and metals. Three of these were liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers heading to destinations such as China and India.
50 days of war: $50 billion in global energy losses
The conflict in Iran has now entered its 50th day. Based on calculations by Reuters and analysts, the war has disrupted more than 500 million barrels of crude oil supply, resulting in cumulative losses of approximately $50 billion. The ongoing crisis is expected to have ripple effects globally lasting months or even years.
RELATED: Trump Announces New Talks on Iran War as Ceasefire Nears Expiration
Since the outbreak of hostilities in late February this year, data from tracking agency Kpler shows that the cumulative reduction in Middle Eastern crude oil and condensate supply has exceeded 500 million barrels, making it the largest energy supply disruption event in modern history.
Iain Mowat, chief analyst at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, noted that a disruption of more than 500 million barrels of crude oil is equivalent to a 10-week halt in global aviation demand, an 11-day shutdown of global road transportation, or five days without oil supply for the entire global economy, according to Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited, also known as FUTU HK, a licensed corporation recognized by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Further estimates suggest this is roughly equivalent to one month of oil demand in the United States, or more than one month of oil consumption in Europe. Based on the U.S. military’s annual fuel consumption of about 80 million barrels (using fiscal year 2021 as a reference), this volume could supply the U.S. military for six years. If allocated to the shipping industry, it would be enough to sustain global international maritime operations for approximately four months.
Statistics show that in March, daily crude oil production in Arab countries in the Persian Gulf dropped sharply by about 8 million barrels, nearly equivalent to the combined output of two oil giants, Exxon Mobil and Chevron, reported Times of India.
Kpler also noted that aviation fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman fell dramatically, from about 19.6 million barrels in February to a combined total of only 4.1 million barrels for March and April so far.
Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler, told Reuters that since the conflict began, international oil prices have averaged around $100 per barrel. These supply gaps translate into an estimated revenue loss of about $50 billion—equivalent to roughly 1 percent of Germany’s annual GDP, or close to the economic scale of countries such as Latvia and Estonia.
According to a report by The Nation, experts warn that heavy oil fields in Kuwait and Iraq may take 4 to 5 months to return to normal operations, meaning pressure on crude oil inventories will likely persist into the summer. In addition, due to damage to infrastructure at Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facilities and multiple refineries during the conflict, it may take several years for regional energy infrastructure to recover to pre-war levels.
