On May 14-15, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, in what is widely viewed as one of the most consequential political events of the year. The summit comes as global instability continues to heat up, with the Iran war still unresolved and tensions between Washington and Beijing simmering across trade, technology, Taiwan, and broader strategic competition.
Though both governments have recently emphasized the importance of maintaining “overall stability” in bilateral ties, analysts say the underlying conflicts between the two powers remain fundamentally unresolved. Many observers believe the summit is aimed less at achieving a major breakthrough and more at preventing relations from deteriorating further.
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Managing deeper structural conflicts
Henrietta Levin, a senior China researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said both Washington and Beijing currently appear interested in stabilizing relations, though deeper structural conflicts remain unresolved.
The U.S.-China trade conflict first erupted during Trump’s first term and escalated again last year after Washington imposed a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods. Beijing retaliated with higher tariffs on American imports and restrictions on certain rare earth exports. At one point, some tariff rates climbed as high as 145 percent.
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As the economic impact began weighing on both countries, the two sides entered what analysts described as a temporary “trade truce.” Following a leaders’ meeting in South Korea last October, China agreed to increase purchases of American agricultural products, while the U.S. reduced some tariffs in return.
Still, many experts view the current easing as temporary rather than transformative. Fudan University scholar Zhao Minghao said Beijing’s strategy is to use countermeasures to gain leverage in negotiations rather than to end competition altogether. “The two sides may announce new trade arrangements, but that does not mean the trade war is over,” Zhao said.
Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society and a former U.S. trade negotiator, told The Washington Post that compared with previous U.S.-China summits, high-level preparations for this meeting appear noticeably limited. She described the current situation as “a fairly fragile truce,” and noted that “Postponement may also come as somewhat of a relief to both sides as, when compared to previous summits, they have had relatively little time to develop substantive and meaningful deliverables.”
The White House has indicated the two governments may discuss establishing a new bilateral trade coordination mechanism to maintain economic communication channels.
Tech rivalry remains major flashpoint
In recent years, Washington has steadily tightened restrictions on advanced semiconductor and chipmaking equipment exports to China in an effort to slow Beijing’s development of AI and other advanced manufacturing capabilities.
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At the same time, major U.S. technology firms, including Nvidia, have urged the White House to relax some restrictions. Nvidia founder Jensen Huang has publicly argued that allowing Chinese companies continued access to American technology helps preserve U.S. dominance in the global AI sector.
Meanwhile, China has accelerated efforts to build its domestic semiconductor industry. Zhao Minghao said Beijing is now placing greater emphasis on independent technological development rather than relying on American high-end chips.
Analysts also expect rare earth supply chains to emerge as a key topic during the summit. China controls a significant portion of global rare earth processing capacity, raising long-term concerns in Washington over supply chain vulnerabilities.
Despite the possibility of limited cooperation in select areas, most analysts believe the broader trajectory toward technological decoupling between the two countries remains unchanged.
On the Taiwan issue
Beyond trade and technology, Taiwan continues to represent the most difficult and dangerous point of tension between Washington and Beijing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Taiwan remains the “greatest risk” in U.S.-China relations. Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to reclaim the self-ruling island by any means necessary.
Since former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, official communication between Beijing and Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party government has largely remained frozen. China has since intensified military activity around Taiwan, while current Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is viewed in Beijing as particularly hardline.
The U.S. continues to maintain its longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity,” formally recognizing the “One China” policy while continuing to provide military support to Taiwan. Trump recently revealed that he had discussed U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with Xi. “I’m going to have that discussion with President Xi,” Trump told reporters when asked about weapons sales to Taiwan. “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion.”
Kyle Chan, a Brookings Institution expert, said Beijing is paying close attention to Trump’s wording on Taiwan. Because Trump often improvises when speaking in public, some officials in Washington reportedly worry that ambiguous comments during the summit could spark speculation about shifts in U.S. Taiwan policy.
Iran war complicates matters
The ongoing Iran war is also expected to feature prominently in the discussions. While Beijing has criticized U.S. and Israeli military actions in the Middle East, China has largely maintained a cautious posture and avoided becoming deeply involved in the conflict.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged Beijing to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while criticizing Beijing’s continued purchases of Iranian oil. Bessent urged China to “step up diplomacy” and use its influence over Iran to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, analysts say Beijing appears more interested in avoiding entanglement in Middle East conflicts than assuming the role of mediator. Levin argued that China has little incentive to solve problems the United States is facing in the region.
Meanwhile, rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict are creating growing domestic pressure for Trump. Higher gasoline prices have fueled public concerns about inflation and the economic costs of continued instability abroad.
